Michaelsen Patrik, Sundström Aksel, Jagers Sverker C
Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 405 30, Sweden.
Department of Management and Engineering, Division of Economics, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Sep 2;122(35):e2503355122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2503355122. Epub 2025 Aug 26.
Rapid global expansion of protected areas is critical for safeguarding biodiversity but depends on political action for successful implementation. Following widespread ratification of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, an unprecedented increase in area-based conservation is required to reach its target of conserving 30% of land, waters, and seas by 2030. These expansions prompt difficult trade-offs between conservation, social, and economic interests. A key factor in securing legitimacy and practical feasibility for expansion regimes is understanding what factors determine public support for them. Using survey and experimental data, we show that in eight countries across five continents, public opinion is 1) strongly in favor of the "30-by-30"-target and 2) highly consistent regarding policy priorities for the design of international- and domestic-level expansion regimes. We find that for international-level policy regimes, support increases with protection responsibilities equally split between countries, rich countries bearing higher costs, more countries actively cooperating, and placement trade not allowed. For domestic-level policy regimes, support generally increases when nature values are prioritized over social or economic values and, in many countries, decreases when costs are borne by a general tax increase, parks are managed by private companies, and when access to parks is restricted. Together, these results demonstrate how protected area expansion policies can be shaped to facilitate reaching 30% protected areas by 2030.
保护区的迅速全球扩张对于保护生物多样性至关重要,但这取决于政治行动以确保成功实施。在《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》广泛获批之后,为实现到2030年保护30%的陆地、水域和海洋的目标,基于区域的保护面积需要前所未有的增长。这些扩张促使在保护、社会和经济利益之间进行艰难的权衡。确保扩张制度合法性和实际可行性的一个关键因素是了解哪些因素决定公众对它们的支持。利用调查和实验数据,我们表明,在五大洲的八个国家中,公众舆论一是强烈支持“30×30”目标,二是在国际和国内层面扩张制度设计的政策优先事项上高度一致。我们发现,对于国际层面的政策制度,当各国之间保护责任平均分担、富国承担更高成本、更多国家积极合作且不允许进行置换交易时,支持度会增加。对于国内层面的政策制度,当自然价值优先于社会或经济价值时,支持度通常会增加,而在许多国家,当通过普遍增税来承担成本、公园由私人公司管理以及公园准入受到限制时,支持度会降低。这些结果共同表明,如何制定保护区扩张政策以促进到2030年实现30%的保护区目标。