Liao Rundong, Chai Yuxi
School of Digital Commerce, Zhejiang Polytechnic University of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Hangzhou, 310053, Zhejiang, China.
Ningbo University DongHai Academy, Ningbo, 315211, Zhejiang, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 28;15(1):31698. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-17435-x.
The rapid development of the cross-border e-commerce industry has posed challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), such as large fluctuations in the international market environment and limited resource allocation, which increases the uncertainty and complexity of their business performance. Traditional business performance evaluation methods are inadequate in handling complex nonlinear data and real-time responsiveness, making them difficult to meet the demands of a dynamic market environment. Based on data from 10 cross-border e-commerce SMEs from 2020 to October 2023, this paper proposes a business performance evaluation method based on the Artificial Bee Colony Optimized Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (ABC-LSTM) to improve the predictive accuracy of complex time series data analysis and the model's generalization ability. The ABC-LSTM model outperforms GA-LSTM, XGBoost, and traditional LSTM models in performance metrics such as Mean Squared Error (0.037), Mean Absolute Error (0.016), and Time Dependency Error (0.019), demonstrating faster convergence speed and higher stability. Additionally, this study analyzes the hierarchical characteristics of performance among different enterprises, revealing the advantages of high-performance enterprises in resource integration, supply chain management, and market expansion, as well as the bottleneck issues of low-performance enterprises. The results validate the significant advantages of the ABC-LSTM model in evaluating the business performance of SMEs in cross-border e-commerce. It not only improves the accuracy of multi-dimensional business data analysis for cross-border e-commerce enterprises but also provides a scientific basis for enterprises in resource integration, supply chain management, and market expansion.
跨境电子商务行业的快速发展给中小企业带来了挑战,如国际市场环境波动大、资源配置有限等,这增加了其经营业绩的不确定性和复杂性。传统的经营业绩评价方法在处理复杂的非线性数据和实时响应性方面存在不足,难以满足动态市场环境的需求。基于2020年至2023年10家跨境电商中小企业的数据,本文提出了一种基于人工蜂群优化长短期记忆神经网络(ABC-LSTM)的经营业绩评价方法,以提高复杂时间序列数据分析的预测准确性和模型的泛化能力。在均方误差(0.037)、平均绝对误差(0.016)和时间依赖误差(0.019)等性能指标方面,ABC-LSTM模型优于GA-LSTM、XGBoost和传统LSTM模型,展现出更快的收敛速度和更高的稳定性。此外,本研究分析了不同企业间业绩的层级特征,揭示了高性能企业在资源整合、供应链管理和市场拓展方面的优势,以及低绩效企业的瓶颈问题。研究结果验证了ABC-LSTM模型在评估跨境电商中小企业经营业绩方面的显著优势。它不仅提高了跨境电商企业多维业务数据分析的准确性,还为企业在资源整合、供应链管理和市场拓展方面提供了科学依据。