Zhao Hui, Cui Yang, Li Meng-Hua, Kang Xiong, Li Wan-Chun, Han Ying-Juan, Yang Jian-Ling, Wang Yun-Xia
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China.
CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing 100193, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2025 Aug;36(8):2429-2441. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202508.029.
This study aimed to quantitatively distinguish the contributions of climate change and human activities to net primary productivity (NPP). Based on meteorological observation data from 27 ground-based meteorological observation stations in Ningxia from 2000 to 2022 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, we examined the spatiotemporal variations of potential net primary productivity (PNPP), actual net primary productivity (ANPP), and human-induced net primary productivity change (HNPP). The Thornthwaite Memorial model and the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, as well as Theil-Sen slope estimation, Mann-Kendall trend test, Hurst index, and partial correlation analysis were used. We quantitatively evaluated the relative effects of climate change and human activities on NPP by the residual method. From 2000 to 2022, both PNPP and ANPP in Ningxia exhibited increasing trends, with annual growth rates of 4.27 and 6.60 g C·m·a, respectively, while HNPP showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, with a reduction rate of 2.33 g C·m·a. Areas with increasing PNPP accounted for 94.4% of the study area, while the area with increasing ANPP covered 92.8%. Declining PNPP was primarily observed in the southeastern part of Shizuishan and the southern part of Yinchuan. The areas experiencing a decrease in ANPP were mainly distributed along the Yellow River. 66.5% area of Ningxia displayed a downtrend in HNPP, and human activities in most regions in the future. Precipitation was the dominant meteorological factor influencing ANPP variation, with 74.4% area of the region showing a significantly positive correlation between ANPP and annual precipitation. The influence of precipitation was greater than that of mean temperature, sunshine duration, and mean wind speed. The average relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP were 46.3% and 53.4%, respectively. In 62.1% of the total area, vegetation improvement was primarily driven by the combined effects of climate change and human activities, while 26.1% of the area experienced vegetation improvement mainly due to climate change. Vegetation degradation accounted for 7.2% of the total area, mainly driven by human activities or the combined effects of climate change and human activities. These findings would help reveal the mechanisms underlying the impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP, and thus offer scientific support for regional ecological construction and policy-making.
本研究旨在定量区分气候变化和人类活动对净初级生产力（NPP）的贡献。基于2000年至2022年宁夏27个地面气象观测站的气象观测数据以及中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）数据，我们研究了潜在净初级生产力（PNPP）、实际净初级生产力（ANPP）和人为引起的净初级生产力变化（HNPP）的时空变化。使用了桑斯维特纪念模型和改进的卡内基-埃姆斯-斯坦福方法（CASA）模型，以及泰尔-森斜率估计、曼-肯德尔趋势检验、赫斯特指数和偏相关分析。我们通过残差法定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对NPP的相对影响。2000年至2022年期间，宁夏的PNPP和ANPP均呈上升趋势，年增长率分别为4.27和6.60 g C·m·a，而HNPP呈波动下降趋势，下降率为2.33 g C·m·a。PNPP增加的区域占研究区域的94.4%，而ANPP增加的区域占92.8%。PNPP下降主要出现在石嘴山市东南部和银川市南部。ANPP下降的区域主要分布在黄河沿线。宁夏66.5%的区域HNPP呈下降趋势，且未来大多数地区人类活动亦是如此。降水是影响ANPP变化的主要气象因素，该区域74.4%的面积显示ANPP与年降水量之间存在显著正相关。降水的影响大于平均温度、日照时长和平均风速。气候变化和人类活动对NPP的平均相对贡献分别为46.3%和53.4%。在总面积的62.1%中，植被改善主要是由气候变化和人类活动的综合作用驱动的，而26.1%的区域植被改善主要是由于气候变化。植被退化占总面积的7.2%，主要是由人类活动或气候变化与人类活动的综合作用驱动的。这些发现将有助于揭示气候变化和人类活动对NPP影响的潜在机制，从而为区域生态建设和政策制定提供科学支持。
