Mapping the mismatch between building and population growth: A global study of 1,700 cities.

The proportionality between urban building expansion and population growth is a key indicator of sustainable development, yet its global patterns and drivers remain underexplored. This study investigates the discrepancies between building volume and population growth rates (Δ) across 1,744 cities in 12 major global economies from 2000 to 2020 using satellite-based building volume and population databases. Results reveal significant regional disparities: cities in East and Southeast Asia tend to construct buildings at rates exceeding population growth, while many cities in Europe and North America show conservative building developments with Δ close to or lower than zero. Socioeconomic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), population size, and spatial clustering around the regional economic centers further explain these patterns, particularly in economies of the Global South. These findings emphasize the need for region-specific approaches and strategies to achieve sustainable urban development.