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与共享社会经济途径一致的全球网格化 GDP 数据集。

Global gridded GDP data set consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways.

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.

State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.

出版信息

Sci Data. 2022 May 19;9(1):221. doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01300-x.

Abstract

The vulnerability, exposure and resilience of socioeconomic activities to future climate extremes call for high-resolution gridded GDP in climate change adaptation and mitigation research. While global socioeconomic projections are provided mainly at the national level, and downscaling approaches using nighttime light (NTL) images or gridded population data can increase the uncertainty due to limitations. Therefore, we adopt an NTL-population-based approach, which exhibits higher accuracy in socioeconomic disaggregation. Gross regional product of over 800 provinces, which covering over 60% of the global land surface and accounted for more than 80% of GDP in 2005, were used as input. We present a first set of comparable spatially explicit global gridded GDP projections with fine spatial resolutions of 30 arc-seconds and 0.25 arc-degrees for the historical period of 2005 and for 2030-2100 at 10-year intervals under the five SSPs, accounting for the two-child policy in China. This gridded GDP projection dataset can broaden the applicability of GDP data, the availability of which is necessary for socioeconomic and climate change research.

摘要

社会经济活动对未来气候极值的脆弱性、暴露度和恢复力要求在气候变化适应和缓解研究中使用高分辨率网格化 GDP。虽然全球社会经济预测主要在国家层面提供,并且使用夜间灯光 (NTL) 图像或网格化人口数据的降尺度方法可能会由于限制而增加不确定性。因此,我们采用了一种基于 NTL-人口的方法,该方法在社会经济分解方面表现出更高的准确性。我们使用了超过 800 个省份的总地区生产总值作为输入,这些省份覆盖了全球陆地表面的 60%以上,占 2005 年 GDP 的 80%以上。我们提出了第一套可比的、具有精细空间分辨率(30 弧秒和 0.25 度弧分)的全球网格化 GDP 预测,涵盖了五个 SSP 下 2005 年的历史时期以及 2030-2100 年每 10 年一次的时期,考虑到中国的二孩政策。这个网格化 GDP 预测数据集可以扩大 GDP 数据的适用性,这些数据是社会经济和气候变化研究所必需的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/da72/9120090/97bf6cf8cb10/41597_2022_1300_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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