Pollegioni Paola, Marchesini Alexis, Gaudet Muriel, Chiocchini Francesca, Monti Flavio, Leonardi Luca, Cherubini Marcello, Mattioni Claudia
Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council Porano Italy.
National Biodiversity Future Center Palermo Italy.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Aug 31;15(9):e72018. doi: 10.1002/ece3.72018. eCollection 2025 Sep.
is an endemic tree species native to the Southern Italian Apennines and north-eastern Corsica, renowned for its ecological significance. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate range shifts and increased fragmentation for many forest trees, including . Hybridization with the sympatric in the central part of its Italian native range may also influence the genetic structure and conservation priorities for . A comprehensive conservation strategy is needed to preserve its genetic resources in Italy. We analyzed the genetic diversity, population structure, and extent of hybridization with in 23 forest stands across its native Italian range using nuclear microsatellites. Habitat suitability was modeled under current and future climate scenarios using an ensemble forecasting approach. Conservation prioritization was guided by a genetically informed Reserve Selection analysis in DIVA-GIS to identify areas of high conservation value and address gaps in genetic resource representation. Italian alder populations exhibit low genetic diversity, which decreases towards the southern latitudinal margins of the peninsula. Hybridization and introgression with have a geographically localized impact on the genetic variation within populations. Local increases in private allelic richness do not alter the spatial genetic structure of , but they help mitigate the risk of severe genetic erosion. A significant proportion of the species' genetic diversity is effectively preserved through in situ conservation. Model projections under future climate scenarios indicate a substantial decline in habitat suitability for stands with high priority for in situ conservation. This highlights the need for complementary strategies, including ex situ conservation measures. Our study highlights the importance of integrating genetic analyses, habitat suitability modeling, and spatial prioritization techniques for effective conservation planning of in the face of climate change across the Mediterranean.
是一种原产于意大利南部亚平宁山脉和科西嘉岛东北部的特有树种，以其生态意义而闻名。地中海盆地的气候变化预测表明，许多森林树种，包括该树种，其分布范围将发生变化，碎片化程度将增加。在其意大利本土分布范围的中部，与同域分布的该树种杂交也可能影响其遗传结构和保护优先级。需要一项全面的保护战略来保护其在意大利的遗传资源。我们使用核微卫星分析了其在意大利本土分布范围内23个桤木林分的遗传多样性、种群结构以及与该树种的杂交程度。利用综合预测方法，在当前和未来气候情景下对栖息地适宜性进行了建模。在DIVA - GIS中，通过基于遗传信息的保护区选择分析来指导保护优先级确定，以识别具有高保护价值的区域，并解决遗传资源代表性方面的差距。意大利桤木种群表现出低遗传多样性，且在半岛南部纬度边缘地区遗传多样性降低。与该树种的杂交和基因渗入对桤木种群内的遗传变异具有地理上局部化的影响。局部私有等位基因丰富度的增加并未改变桤木的空间遗传结构，但有助于降低严重遗传侵蚀的风险。通过就地保护有效地保护了该物种相当一部分的遗传多样性。未来气候情景下的模型预测表明，对于就地保护具有高度优先性的桤木林分，其栖息地适宜性将大幅下降。这凸显了需要采取补充战略，包括迁地保护措施。我们的研究强调了整合遗传分析、栖息地适宜性建模和空间优先级确定技术对于在地中海地区气候变化背景下有效开展桤木保护规划的重要性。
