Jin Tao, Li Zhihao
School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Sep 3;20(9):e0330908. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0330908. eCollection 2025.
Structural change is a fundamental aspect of a country's economic development process. Unlike traditional literature, our research integrates input-output analysis with a multisector general equilibrium model to investigate the role of sectoral input-output linkages throughout this process. By utilizing this framework and applying it to Chinese data, we find that sectoral input-output linkages are as critical as final demand in our analysis. The stability of the manufacturing sector and the prosperity of the services sector are significantly influenced by these linkages. Our findings remain robust in counterfactual analyses, even after modifying the model specifications. We apply methodologies from production networks research to elucidate the mechanisms by which linkages function. Through structural decomposition analysis, we identify the various components that constitute these driving forces. Ultimately, our results align closely with our baseline findings.
结构变化是一个国家经济发展过程的基本方面。与传统文献不同，我们的研究将投入产出分析与多部门一般一般均衡模型相结合，以考察部门间投入产出联系在这一过程中的作用。通过运用这一框架并将其应用于中国数据，我们发现在我们的分析中，部门间投入产出联系与最终需求同样重要。制造业的稳定性和服务业的繁荣受到这些联系的显著影响。即使在修改模型设定后，我们的研究结果在反事实分析中依然稳健。我们应用生产网络研究的方法来阐明这些联系发挥作用的机制。通过结构分解分析，我们确定了构成这些驱动力的各个组成部分。最终，我们的结果与基线研究结果密切吻合。
