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父母的社会经济地位、儿童时期贫困与健康老龄化:对32个富裕和发展中国家的六项队列调查的回顾性和前瞻性研究

Parental socioeconomic position, childhood poverty and healthy ageing: retrospective and prospective study of six cohort surveys across 32 wealthy and developing nations.

作者信息

Tampubolon Gindo

机构信息

UK NIHR Policy Research Unit on Healthy Ageing, Global Development Institute, University of Manchester.

出版信息

medRxiv. 2025 Aug 26:2025.08.22.25334234. doi: 10.1101/2025.08.22.25334234.

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The childhood poor in wealthy countries have reported worse cognitive, muscle and mental functions as well as more frailty and multimorbidity as older adults. But it is uncertain whether the childhood poor around the world fall short of attaining healthy ageing because information of childhood conditions is often erroneous. Here I present new evidence on the life course shaping of healthy ageing among older adults around the world.

METHODS

Some 80 thousand older adults over 50 years in 32 wealthy and developing nations recalled their childhood conditions at ten to fourteen, then prospectively reported their health functionings. By the decade's end these countries host more than half (53%) of the world population of 60 year and over according to the United Nations. Following recent empirical studies, a modified healthy ageing scale is constructed using a generalised latent trait model. The childhood conditions in England, Ireland and continental Europe include numbers of books, rooms and people (indicating overcrowding), presence of running hot water and central heating. Across in America, these are mostly replaced with financial hardship or family indebtedness; in China starvation to death due to government edict while in Indonesia presence of running cold water. Per prior practice childhood poverty is a latent construct of these error-laced recollections. Its associations with healthy ageing scale (modified) are obtained with fixed effects model, controlling for parental socioeconomic position, age, sex, education, wealth and marital status. Extensive sensitivity analyses assessed robustness.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Childhood poverty is associated with reduced healthy ageing by 0.14 standard deviation (z = -17.6); older adults who grew up poor have lower healthy ageing scores relative to those who were not poor. And women reported lower healthy ageing scores. Distributions of healthy ageing vary across countries, as do age profiles of healthy ageing in older adults. Childhood poverty is common in developing countries and non-negligible in rich countries. Social and economic progress over the long peaceful century is no guarantee of a complete poverty eradication promised by the world leaders in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In fact, lifting all children out of poverty is set to face more challenges with regional wars in across the world. Childhood recollections show that the childhood poor grow old fall short of healthy ageing, making the life course shaping of healthy ageing central. And the strong evidence presented here calls for urgent actions to eliminate child poverty on account of its lifelong rewards.Researchers can now use childhood recollections across wealthy and developing nations alike, despite their measurement errors and their variation in elicitation, to estimate their associations with older adults' health. And health policy makers should adopt a life course approach when evaluating childhood health interventions on account of their lifelong associations.

摘要

背景与目的

据报道,富裕国家中童年贫困的人群在步入老年后认知、肌肉和心理功能较差,身体更虚弱,患多种疾病的情况也更多。但由于童年状况的信息往往有误,全球范围内童年贫困的人群是否难以实现健康老龄化尚不确定。在此,我展示了关于全球老年人健康老龄化的生命历程塑造的新证据。

方法

在32个富裕和发展中国家,约8万名50岁以上的老年人回忆了他们10至14岁时的童年状况,然后前瞻性地报告了他们的健康功能。根据联合国的数据,到这十年结束时,这些国家拥有全球60岁及以上人口的一半以上(53%)。根据最近的实证研究,使用广义潜在特质模型构建了一个改良的健康老龄化量表。英格兰、爱尔兰和欧洲大陆的童年状况包括书籍数量、房间数量和人数(表明过度拥挤)、是否有热水供应和集中供暖。在美国,这些大多被经济困难或家庭债务所取代;在中国是因政府政策导致的饿死情况,而在印度尼西亚是是否有冷水供应。按照先前的做法,童年贫困是这些存在错误回忆的潜在结构。通过固定效应模型获得其与改良后的健康老龄化量表的关联,同时控制父母的社会经济地位、年龄、性别、教育程度、财富和婚姻状况。进行了广泛的敏感性分析以评估稳健性。

结果与讨论

童年贫困与健康老龄化降低0.14个标准差相关(z = -17.6);童年贫困的老年人相对于非贫困老年人的健康老龄化得分更低。而且女性报告的健康老龄化得分更低。健康老龄化的分布在不同国家有所不同,老年人健康老龄化的年龄分布也是如此。童年贫困在发展中国家很常见,在富裕国家也不可忽视。在漫长的和平世纪中,社会和经济的进步并不能保证实现联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》中世界领导人承诺的彻底消除贫困。事实上,随着世界各地的地区战争,让所有儿童摆脱贫困将面临更多挑战。童年回忆表明,童年贫困的人在老年时无法实现健康老龄化,这使得健康老龄化的生命历程塑造至关重要。这里所呈现的有力证据呼吁采取紧急行动消除儿童贫困,因为其带来的终身益处。研究人员现在可以利用富裕和发展中国家的童年回忆,尽管存在测量误差和获取方式的差异,来估计它们与老年人健康的关联。而且健康政策制定者在评估童年健康干预措施时应采用生命历程方法,因为它们具有终身关联。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ca9e/12407606/9029d29b5b48/nihpp-2025.08.22.25334234v1-f0001.jpg

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