Geng Shubao, Chen Lei, Hou Heli, Qiao Li, Guo Shibao, Zhou Zhou, Tu Hongtao, Jung Chuleui
School of Agricultural Sciences, Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University, Xinyang, China.
School of Food Sciences and Engineering, Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University, Xinyang, China.
Arch Insect Biochem Physiol. 2025 Sep;120(1):e70094. doi: 10.1002/arch.70094.
The Asiatic apple leafminer, Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Matsumura), is a significant secondary pest of apple trees in Northeast Asia. To better understand its population dynamics, a population model based on temperature-developmental relationships was constructed. This model includes three sub-models: spring emergence, immature stage transition, and adult oviposition. Field data were collected from sex-pheromone baited traps in apple orchards in Andong, Korea, during 2015 and 2016 to validate the model. Simulations under six pesticide-natural enemy scenarios showed that the population size of each generation was best simulated when weighted mortality factors for pesticides and natural enemies were applied. Using daily temperature inputs, the model demonstrated that P. ringoniella typically undergoes five generations per year, with peak times predicted within a 7-day margin of field data. Sensitivity analyses revealed that population size was influenced by total fecundity and the larval stage model, but peak times remained consistent despite parameter changes. Higher temperatures led to earlier adult peak dates, especially in summer generations. This model serves as a fundamental tool for estimating population dynamics and abundance changes of P. ringoniella and can guide the timings of pesticide application. Further validation is necessary to test the model's efficacy in controlling pests in apple orchards.
苹果潜叶蛾（Phyllonorycter ringoniella (Matsumura)）是东北亚地区苹果树的一种重要次要害虫。为了更好地了解其种群动态，构建了一个基于温度与发育关系的种群模型。该模型包括三个子模型：春季羽化、未成熟阶段转变和成虫产卵。2015年和2016年期间，从韩国安东苹果园的性诱捕器收集田间数据以验证该模型。在六种农药 - 天敌情景下的模拟表明，当应用农药和天敌的加权死亡率因子时，各代种群数量的模拟效果最佳。利用每日温度输入，该模型表明苹果潜叶蛾通常每年发生五代，预测的高峰期与田间数据相差7天以内。敏感性分析表明，种群数量受总繁殖力和幼虫阶段模型的影响，但尽管参数发生变化，高峰期仍保持一致。温度升高导致成虫高峰期提前，尤其是在夏季世代。该模型是估计苹果潜叶蛾种群动态和数量变化的基本工具，可指导农药施用时间。需要进一步验证以测试该模型在控制苹果园害虫方面的功效。
