Ordóñez Raziel A, Casteel Shaun N, Stevens Rachel H, Archontoulis Sotirios V, Vyn Tony J
Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.
Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Sep;31(9):e70469. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70469.
Understanding how interactive management practices and climatic behavior influence soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] productivity is imperative to inform future production systems under changing climate. This study examined eight unique long-term production systems from 1975 to 2024 on a fertile rainfed Mollisol in Indiana, USA. Using this 400-unit field-scale dataset comparing soybean in monocropping versus following maize (Zea mays L.) across four tillage intensities (Moldboard Plow, Chisel, Ridge/Strip-Till and No-Till), we investigated how these practices interact with each other and with weather patterns. Our focus was on the spring (1 April-20 June) and summer (21 June-30 September) periods, and their effects on final yields and morphometric plant phenes. Soybean yield results during the 50-year period, when spring temperatures increased by 1.6°C, reflected (i) consistently positive yield responses to higher spring temperatures, at the rate of 796 kg ha/°C, especially in monocropping, despite concurrent development of wetter springs and drier summers; (ii) improved yield resilience in the No-Till versus tilled systems; (iii) average soybean yields rotated with maize were 7.7% above those in monocropping but varied widely with tillage and year; and (iv) yield gain rates over time averaging 29.5 kg ha year for monocropping and 25.6 kg ha year for rotation. Plant height at 4- and 8-weeks post-planting was more influenced by air temperatures than precipitation, but final yield differences among tillage intensities were proportionately much smaller than relative soybean height differences in spring. These findings of consistent yield gains across multiple rotation and tillage regimes, despite changing climate factors, can inform actionable strategies for sustainable food production in future warming climate scenarios. Additionally, the unique rotation/tillage outcomes for 50 years provide a unique baseline for process-based crop model calibration to enhance our ability to design future cropping systems.
了解交互式管理措施和气候行为如何影响大豆[Glycine max (L.) Merr.]生产力对于指导气候变化下的未来生产系统至关重要。本研究在美国印第安纳州一片肥沃的雨养软土上，考察了1975年至2024年的8种独特长期生产系统。利用这个包含400个单元的田间尺度数据集，比较了单作大豆与玉米（Zea mays L.）连作下四种耕作强度（铧式犁、凿式犁、垄作/条耕和免耕）的情况，我们研究了这些措施之间以及与天气模式如何相互作用。我们关注的是春季（4月1日至6月20日）和夏季（6月21日至9月30日）及其对最终产量和形态植物表型的影响。在50年期间，春季气温升高1.6°C时，大豆产量结果表明：（i）尽管春季变湿和夏季变干同时出现，但春季气温升高时，产量始终呈正响应，速率为796 kg ha/°C，特别是在单作中；（ii）免耕系统相对于耕作系统的产量恢复力有所提高；（iii）与玉米轮作的大豆平均产量比单作高7.7%，但因耕作方式和年份差异很大；（iv）单作的产量年增长率平均为29.5 kg ha/年，轮作的为25.6 kg ha/年。种植后4周和8周时的株高受气温影响大于降水，但耕作强度之间的最终产量差异比春季大豆相对株高差异小得多。尽管气候因素发生变化，但多种轮作和耕作制度下产量持续增加的这些发现，可以为未来变暖气候情景下可持续粮食生产的可行策略提供参考。此外，50年独特的轮作/耕作结果为基于过程的作物模型校准提供了独特的基线，以增强我们设计未来种植系统的能力。
