Ball Thomas S, Dales Michael, Eyres Alison, Green Jonathan M H, Madhavapeddy Anil, Williams David R, Balmford Andrew
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Food. 2025 Sep 9. doi: 10.1038/s43016-025-01224-w.
Agriculturally driven habitat degradation and destruction is the biggest threat to global biodiversity. Yet the impact of different foods and where they are produced on species extinction risks, and the mitigation potential of different interventions, remain poorly quantified. Here we link the LIFE biodiversity metric-a high-resolution global layer describing the marginal impact of land use on extinctions of ~30,000 vertebrate species-with food consumption and production data and provenance modelling. Using an opportunity cost framing, we estimate that the impact of producing 1 kg of different food commodities on species extinction risks varies widely both across and within foods, in many cases by more than an order of magnitude. Despite marked differences in per capita impacts across countries, there are consistent patterns that could be leveraged for mitigating harm to biodiversity. In particular, animal products and commodities grown in the tropics are generally much more impactful than staple crops and vegetables.
农业驱动的栖息地退化和破坏是对全球生物多样性的最大威胁。然而,不同食物及其产地对物种灭绝风险的影响,以及不同干预措施的缓解潜力,仍未得到充分量化。在这里,我们将生命生物多样性指标——一个描述土地利用对约30000种脊椎动物物种灭绝的边际影响的高分辨率全球图层——与食物消费和生产数据以及来源建模联系起来。使用机会成本框架,我们估计,生产1千克不同食品对物种灭绝风险的影响在不同食物之间以及同一食物内部差异很大,在许多情况下相差一个数量级以上。尽管各国人均影响存在显著差异,但仍有一些一致的模式可用于减轻对生物多样性的危害。特别是,热带地区生产的动物产品和商品通常比主粮作物和蔬菜的影响大得多。