Erb H N, Smith R D, Oltenacu P A, Guard C L, Hillman R B, Powers P A, Smith M C, White M E
J Dairy Sci. 1985 Dec;68(12):3337-49. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(85)81244-3.
Path analysis was used to model the direct and indirect relationships among age, previous lactation yield or estimated transmitting ability for milk, body weight, days dry, reproductive disorders, milk fever, mastitis, reproductive performance, current milk yield, and culling. Prospective data were from 784 primiparous and 2,066 multiparous Holstein lactations from 33 herds. Heifers that were older, of lighter weight, or who had lower estimated transmitting ability for milk had more problems, less milk, and poorer survival. Dystocia in heifers had several detrimental consequences including 2.9 to 4 times more retained placenta, metritis, and culling and +7.4 d more to first service. Cystic ovaries were associated directly with 376 kg greater milk yield and with a 16.5-d delay in first service. Failure to conceive at first service and mastitis increased risk of culling 5.2 to 10 times. In multiparous cows, milk fever increased risk of reproductive disorders by 1.6 to 4.2 times and indirectly contributed to poor breeding performance and increased culling. Risk of culling was increased 2.1 to 3.7 times directly by mastitis and dystocia and by poor breeding performance.
采用通径分析来构建年龄、前一胎次产奶量或牛奶估计传递能力、体重、干奶天数、繁殖障碍、产乳热、乳腺炎、繁殖性能、当前产奶量和淘汰之间的直接和间接关系模型。前瞻性数据来自33个牛群的784头初产和2066头经产荷斯坦奶牛的泌乳记录。年龄较大、体重较轻或牛奶估计传递能力较低的小母牛存在更多问题、产奶量更少且存活率更低。小母牛难产会产生多种有害后果,包括胎盘滞留、子宫炎和淘汰的发生率增加2.9至4倍,首次配种时间延长7.4天。卵巢囊肿直接导致产奶量增加376千克,首次配种时间延迟16.5天。首次配种未受孕和乳腺炎会使淘汰风险增加5.2至10倍。在经产母牛中,产乳热会使繁殖障碍风险增加1.6至4.2倍,并间接导致繁殖性能不佳和淘汰率增加。乳腺炎、难产以及繁殖性能不佳会使淘汰风险直接增加2.1至3.7倍。