1999 - 2021年塞尔维亚中部女性癌症的时空趋势：对灾害和公共卫生准备的启示

Spatial-Temporal Trends of Cancer Among Women in Central Serbia, 1999-2021: Implications for Disaster and Public Health Preparedness.

作者信息

Kričković Emina, Cvetković Vladimir M, Kričković Zoran, Lukić Tin

机构信息

Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/III, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.

Department of Disaster Management and Environmental Security, Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Gospodara Vučića 50, 11040 Belgrade, Serbia.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2025 Aug 30;13(17):2169. doi: 10.3390/healthcare13172169.

DOI:10.3390/healthcare13172169

PMID:40941521

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12427793/

Abstract

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Cancer is a major public health burden in Serbia and a factor influencing long-term disaster readiness by straining health system capacity. This study examined spatial and temporal trends in incidence and mortality for eight major cancers among women in Central Serbia (1999-2021) to inform targeted prevention and preparedness strategies.

METHODS

Standardised rates from national datasets were analysed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. Geographic disparities were mapped in ArcGIS Pro 3.2. Mortality trends were assessed only for statistically reliable series.

RESULTS

Breast cancer incidence increased in six counties, while cervical cancer declined in several areas, likely reflecting screening success. Colorectal, bladder, pancreatic, and lung and bronchus cancers showed rising incidence; lung and bronchus cancer mortality increased in 16 counties, indicating growing demand for chronic respiratory care. These shifts may reduce surge capacity during disasters by increasing the baseline burden on healthcare infrastructure. Regional disparities highlight uneven system resilience.

CONCLUSIONS

Aligning cancer control measures-especially for high-burden cancers like lung-with emergency preparedness frameworks is essential to strengthen health system resilience, particularly in resource-limited regions.

摘要

背景/目的：癌症是塞尔维亚的一项重大公共卫生负担，也是一个因卫生系统能力紧张而影响长期灾难准备工作的因素。本研究调查了塞尔维亚中部女性八种主要癌症的发病率和死亡率的时空趋势，以为有针对性的预防和准备策略提供信息。

方法

使用曼-肯德尔趋势检验和森斜率估计器分析国家数据集的标准化率。在ArcGIS Pro 3.2中绘制地理差异图。仅对统计上可靠的系列评估死亡率趋势。

结果

六个县的乳腺癌发病率上升，而几个地区的宫颈癌发病率下降，这可能反映了筛查的成功。结直肠癌、膀胱癌、胰腺癌以及肺癌和支气管癌的发病率呈上升趋势；16个县的肺癌和支气管癌死亡率上升，表明对慢性呼吸道护理的需求不断增加。这些变化可能会因增加医疗基础设施的基线负担而降低灾难期间的应急能力。地区差异凸显了系统复原力的不均衡。