Cai Yuzhou, Dai Fangyi, Ye Ying, Qian Jinxian
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yun nan, 650032, China.
School of Basic Medical Sciences, Kunming Medical University, Yun nan, 650500, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 18;15(1):9347. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-93883-9.
Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignant disease among women and affects women of reproductive age (15-49 years) across the globe. This study examines patterns and trends in the epidemiology of breast cancer in women of reproductive age using global burden of disease data (1990-2021), with the objective of informing targeted public health strategies. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), this study analyzed the temporal trends, regional disparities, and health inequalities in the burden of breast cancer among women of reproductive age across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The analysis employed methodologies including the age-period-cohort (APC) model, decomposition analysis, the slope index of inequality (SII), and the concentration index (CIX). Additionally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) predictive model was utilized to forecast the global burden of breast cancer among women of reproductive age from 2022 to 2040. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of breast cancer among women of reproductive age showed a significant upward trend, with increases of 118.7%, 121.3%, and 66.8% in the number of new cases, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost, respectively. The most pronounced increases were observed in regions with low and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI). APC analysis revealed that the rising incidence and prevalence rates were driven by age and period effects, while the risk of breast cancer declined among more recent birth cohorts. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging and growth were the primary contributors to the global rise in breast cancer burden. SII and CIX analyses demonstrated that absolute health inequalities in breast cancer burden intensified during this period, while relative inequalities showed a slight decline. According to the BAPC predictive model, by 2040, the number of new breast cancer cases among women of reproductive age is expected to increase by 47.8% compared to 2022, accompanied by continued rises in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. Between 1990 and 2021, the global burden of breast cancer among women of reproductive age increased significantly, with notable health inequalities across regions and populations. By 2040, new cases are projected to rise by 47.8% from 2022, underscoring an urgent global challenge in breast cancer prevention and control.
乳腺癌是女性中最常见的恶性疾病，影响着全球育龄（15 - 49岁）女性。本研究利用全球疾病负担数据（1990 - 2021年）研究育龄女性乳腺癌的流行病学模式和趋势，目的是为有针对性的公共卫生策略提供信息。本研究使用全球疾病负担研究（GBD 2021）的数据，分析了1990年至2021年期间204个国家和地区育龄女性乳腺癌负担的时间趋势、地区差异和健康不平等情况。分析采用了年龄 - 时期 - 队列（APC）模型、分解分析、不平等斜率指数（SII）和集中指数（CIX）等方法。此外，还利用贝叶斯年龄 - 时期 - 队列（BAPC）预测模型预测2022年至2040年期间全球育龄女性乳腺癌负担。1990年至2021年期间，全球育龄女性乳腺癌负担呈显著上升趋势，新发病例数、患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）损失分别增加了118.7%、121.3%和66.8%。在社会人口指数（SDI）低和中低的地区观察到最显著的增长。APC分析显示，发病率和患病率的上升是由年龄和时期效应驱动的，而在最近出生的队列中乳腺癌风险有所下降。分解分析表明，人口老龄化和增长是全球乳腺癌负担上升的主要原因。SII和CIX分析表明，在此期间乳腺癌负担的绝对健康不平等加剧，而相对不平等略有下降。根据BAPC预测模型，到2040年，预计育龄女性新乳腺癌病例数将比2022年增加47.8%，同时年龄标准化发病率、患病率和死亡率将持续上升。1990年至2021年期间，全球育龄女性乳腺癌负担显著增加，各地区和人群之间存在明显的健康不平等。到2040年，预计新病例数将比2022年增加47.8%，凸显了全球乳腺癌预防和控制方面的紧迫挑战。
