Weng Yutao, Cao Jun, Fang Hao, Feng Binjian, Zhu Liming, Chu Xueyi, Lu Yajing, Han Chunxia, Lu Lu, Zhang Jingbo, Cheng Tielong
College of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
Plants (Basel). 2025 Aug 30;14(17):2706. doi: 10.3390/plants14172706.
Under the context of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of extreme low-temperature events poses a severe challenge to plant distribution and ecosystem stability. The arid and semi-arid regions of Northwestern China, as a sensitive response area to global change, have proven to possess significant development potential with their unique desert vegetation systems. This study focuses on the ecological adaptability mechanisms of Bobr., a key species of the desert ecosystem in Northwestern China, and systematically analyzes the evolution patterns of its geographical distribution under the coupled effects of climate change and human activities through a MaxEnt model. The research conclusions are as follows: (i) This study constructs a Human Footprint-MaxEnt (HF-MaxEnt) coupling model. After incorporating human footprint variables, the AUC value of the model increases to 0.914 (from 0.888), demonstrating higher accuracy and reliability. (ii) After incorporating human footprint variables, the predicted area of the model decreases from 2,248,000 km to 1,976,000 km, with the High Suitability experiencing a particularly sharp decline of up to 79.4%, highlighting the significant negative impact of human disturbance on . (iii) Under the current climate baseline period, solar radiation, precipitation during the wettest season, and mean temperature of the coldest month are the core driving factors for suitable areas of . (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of is significantly positively correlated with carbon emission levels. Under the SSP370 and SSP585 emission pathways, the area of potential distribution reaches 172.24% and 161.3% of that in the current climate baseline period. (v) Under future climate scenarios, the distribution center of potential suitable areas for shows a dual migration characteristic of "west-south" and "high altitude", and the mean temperature of the hottest month will become the core constraint factor in the future. This study provides theoretical support and data backing for the delineation of habitat protection areas, population restoration, resource management, and future development prospects for .
在全球气候变化背景下，极端低温事件的频繁发生对植物分布和生态系统稳定性构成严峻挑战。中国西北干旱和半干旱地区作为对全球变化的敏感响应区域，其独特的荒漠植被系统已被证明具有巨大的发展潜力。本研究聚焦于中国西北荒漠生态系统的关键物种梭梭（Haloxylon ammodendron (C. A. Mey.) Bunge）的生态适应机制，并通过MaxEnt模型系统分析其在气候变化和人类活动耦合作用下的地理分布演变模式。研究结论如下：（i）本研究构建了人类足迹 - MaxEnt（HF - MaxEnt）耦合模型。纳入人类足迹变量后，模型的AUC值从0.888提升至0.914，表明模型具有更高的准确性和可靠性。（ii）纳入人类足迹变量后，模型预测面积从224.8万平方千米减少至197.6万平方千米，其中高适宜度区域下降尤为显著，降幅高达79.4%，凸显了人类干扰对梭梭的显著负面影响。（iii）在当前气候基准期，太阳辐射、最湿润季节降水量和最冷月平均温度是梭梭适宜分布区的核心驱动因素。（iv）在未来气候情景下，梭梭潜在分布面积与碳排放水平显著正相关。在SSP3 - 7.0和SSP5 - 8.5排放路径下，潜在分布面积分别达到当前气候基准期的172.24%和161.3%。（v）在未来气候情景下，梭梭潜在适宜分布区的中心呈现“西 - 南”和“高海拔”的双重迁移特征，最热月平均温度将成为未来的核心制约因素。本研究为梭梭栖息地保护区划定、种群恢复、资源管理及未来发展前景提供了理论支持和数据依据。
