College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 9;19(10):e0307911. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307911. eCollection 2024.
Xinjiang is one of the most sensitive regions in China in terms of its response to climate change. Against the background of global warming, analyses and predictions using different scenarios for Xinjiang should be conducted. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and trends of future temperature and precipitation trends should be considered to provide a scientific basis for the government to respond to future climate change. In this paper, using the CN05.1 dataset and seven models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the delta downscaling method is used to predict the temperature and precipitation changes in Xinjiang Province from 2021 to 2050 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that (1) most models of CMIP6 have a good effect on temperature simulation in Xinjiang, and the mean values as well as the trends of the temperatures expressed by the multi-model ensemble averaging are in good agreement with the observed data and have a high degree of confidence. The observed precipitation increase rate is significantly higher than that predicted by the model, and the simulation results of each model overestimate the precipitation. (2) The mean annual temperatures in the Xinjiang region increase at rates of 0.32°C/10 a, 0.46°C/10 a, 0.47°C/10 a and 0.67°C/10 a, respectively, under the four scenarios. The rates of temperature increase in the four seasons exhibit the following pattern: autumn > summer > spring > winter. (3) From 2021 to 2050, the average annual precipitation in Xinjiang will change at rates of 3.95 mm/10 a, 1.90 mm/10 a, 2.50 mm/10 a, and 8.67 mm/10 a, respectively, under the four scenarios. The precipitation amounts predicted under the different scenarios increase at the slowest rates in winter and at faster rates in spring. Spatially, the precipitation in the whole Xinjiang region under the four scenarios shows an increasing trend. Overall, except for the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the rates of increase in precipitation increase gradually in all seasons during the future period as the emission scenarios increase. Overall, the climate of the Xinjiang region will be characterized by warming and humidification from 2021 to 2050.
新疆是中国对气候变化响应最敏感的地区之一。在全球变暖的背景下，应该对新疆进行不同情景的分析和预测。应该考虑未来温度和降水趋势的时空分布特征和趋势，为政府应对未来气候变化提供科学依据。本文利用 CN05.1 数据集和耦合模式比较计划第六阶段的七个模式，采用德尔塔降尺度方法，预测了 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下 2021 年至 2050 年新疆省的温度和降水变化。结果表明：（1）CMIP6 中的大多数模型对新疆的温度模拟效果较好，多模式集合平均表达的温度平均值和趋势与观测数据吻合较好，置信度较高。观测到的降水增加率明显高于模型预测的降水增加率，且各模型对降水的模拟结果均偏高。（2）在四个情景下，新疆地区的年平均气温以 0.32°C/10a、0.46°C/10a、0.47°C/10a 和 0.67°C/10a 的速率升高，四个季节的升温速率表现为秋季>夏季>春季>冬季。（3）从 2021 年到 2050 年，在四个情景下，新疆的年平均降水量将分别以 3.95mm/10a、1.90mm/10a、2.50mm/10a 和 8.67mm/10a 的速率变化。在不同情景下预测的降水量在冬季增加最慢，在春季增加最快。空间上，四个情景下新疆全地区的降水呈增加趋势。总体而言，除了 SSP1-2.6 情景外，随着排放情景的增加，未来各季节降水增加率在整个时期逐渐增加。总体而言，从 2021 年到 2050 年，新疆地区的气候将呈现变暖增湿的特征。
