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当前和未来气候变化情景下入侵藤本植物栖息地适宜性评估

Assessment of Habitat Suitability for the Invasive Vine Under Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios.

作者信息

Xiao Cui, Ye Ji, Zhang Haibo, Qin Yonghui, Yan Ruihuan, Xu Guanghao, Zhou Haili

机构信息

Satellite Environmental Application Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100093, China.

Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110164, China.

出版信息

Plants (Basel). 2025 Sep 2;14(17):2745. doi: 10.3390/plants14172745.

Abstract

L. is a rapidly spreading invasive alien vine that threatens natural and agricultural ecosystems globally. We collected occurrence data from 4886 sites and applied the maximum entropy () model to assess current and future habitat suitability for . Future climate conditions were represented by low and high greenhouse gas concentrations under representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). The model accurately predicted the distribution of , and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the receiver operating characteristic test reached 0.921. Among the 19 climatic variables investigated, the best predictors for the distribution of were the precipitation in the driest month (with a contribution of 37.4%), annual precipitation (26.8%), average annual temperature (18.1%), and temperature seasonality (14.9%). Currently, the most suitable areas cover the central and eastern United States, parts of southern Europe, most Japanese islands, the majority of the Korean Peninsula, and eastern China, with a total area of 180.3 × 10 km (1.2% of the Earth's land area). During the 2050s and 2090s under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the most suitable regions worldwide are projected to expand by factors of 1.0 and 2.2, respectively. In particular, suitable areas might expand to higher-latitude regions and encompass previously unsuitable areas, such as Liaoning Province in Northeast China. These findings may aid in the surveillance and management of ' invasion globally.

摘要

L. 是一种迅速蔓延的入侵性外来藤本植物,对全球的自然和农业生态系统构成威胁。我们从4886个地点收集了出现数据,并应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型来评估L. 当前和未来的栖息地适宜性。未来气候条件由代表性浓度路径下的低温室气体浓度和高温室气体浓度来表示(即分别为RCP2.6和RCP8.5)。MaxEnt模型准确预测了L. 的分布,在接收器操作特征测试中接收器操作特征曲线下的面积达到0.921。在所研究的19个气候变量中,对L. 分布的最佳预测因子是最干燥月份的降水量(贡献为37.4%)、年降水量(26.8%)、年平均温度(18.1%)和温度季节性(14.9%)。目前,最适宜的区域覆盖美国中部和东部、南欧部分地区、日本大部分岛屿、朝鲜半岛大部分地区以及中国东部,总面积为180.3×10平方千米(占地球陆地面积的1.2%)。在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下的2050年代和2090年代,预计全球最适宜区域将分别扩大1.0倍和2.2倍。特别是,适宜区域可能会扩展到更高纬度地区,并涵盖以前不适宜的区域,如中国东北的辽宁省。这些发现可能有助于全球范围内对L. 入侵的监测和管理。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fee8/12430053/4406ae4c0944/plants-14-02745-g001.jpg

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