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老年急性左侧复杂性憩室炎的急诊手术:死亡率和发病率的预测因素有哪些?

Emergency Surgery for Acute Left-Sided Complicated Diverticulitis in the Elderly: What Are the Predictor Factors of Mortality and Morbidity?

作者信息

Vaccari Samuele, Pirrera Basilio, Ussia Alessandro, Lauro Augusto, Minghetti Margherita, Cervellera Maurizio, D'Andrea Vito, Tonini Valeria

机构信息

Unit of General and Emergency Surgery-Bentivoglio, Surgical Department-AUSL Bologna, 40010 Bologna, Italy.

Unit of General and Emergency Surgery-Infermi Hospital, Rimini-AUSL Romagna, 47921 Rimini, Italy.

出版信息

J Clin Med. 2025 Sep 6;14(17):6298. doi: 10.3390/jcm14176298.

Abstract

Diverticular disease is common in Western countries, and the frequency of emergency operations for acute left-sided complicated diverticulitis (ALCD) has increased over the past 15 years. A total of 49 patients aged over 80 years and 125 younger patients who underwent emergency surgery for ALCD between October 2018 and June 2025 were analyzed. Demographics and postoperative outcomes were compared between the groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the association between age and postoperative morbidity and mortality. A separate regression model was used to identify risk factors for postoperative mortality and morbidity, specifically in elderly patients. Significant differences between the two groups were found in sex distribution ( < 0.001), cardiovascular comorbidities ( < 0.001), chronic renal insufficiency (CRI) ( < 0.001), ASA score ( < 0.001), ALCD severity according to the modified Hinchey classification ( = 0.006), Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) ( = 0.021), postoperative complications ( < 0.001), and 90-day mortality rates ( < 0.001). Advanced age was a significant predictor of 90-day postoperative mortality and morbidity. In the elderly subgroup, an ASA score ≥ 3, MPI > 25, CRI, and COPD were identified as independent predictors of 90-day postoperative mortality and morbidity. Advanced age is an independent risk factor for 90-day postoperative mortality and morbidity following emergency surgery for ALCD. In patients over 80 years, an ASA score ≥ 3, CRI, COPD, and MPI ≥ 25 are associated with a poorer prognosis.

摘要

憩室病在西方国家很常见,在过去15年中,急性左侧复杂性憩室炎(ALCD)急诊手术的频率有所增加。分析了2018年10月至2025年6月期间因ALCD接受急诊手术的49例80岁以上患者和125例年轻患者。比较了两组的人口统计学和术后结果。采用多因素逻辑回归分析年龄与术后发病率和死亡率之间的关联。使用单独的回归模型确定术后死亡率和发病率的危险因素,特别是在老年患者中。两组在性别分布(<0.001)、心血管合并症(<0.001)、慢性肾功能不全(CRI)(<0.001)、ASA评分(<0.001)、根据改良Hinchey分类的ALCD严重程度(=0.006)、曼海姆腹膜炎指数(MPI)(=0.021)、术后并发症(<0.001)和90天死亡率(<0.001)方面存在显著差异。高龄是术后90天死亡率和发病率的重要预测因素。在老年亚组中,ASA评分≥3、MPI>25、CRI和慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)被确定为术后90天死亡率和发病率的独立预测因素。高龄是ALCD急诊手术后90天死亡率和发病率的独立危险因素。在80岁以上的患者中,ASA评分≥3、CRI、COPD和MPI≥25与预后较差有关。

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