Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in rectal cancer with synchronous lung metastases using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data and a single-center external validation cohort.

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer with synchronous lung metastases has a poor prognosis and high mortality. Despite treatment advancements, effective prognostic tools for early diagnosis and personalized treatment remain limited. This study develops and validates a survival nomogram to improve prognosis prediction and guide treatment strategies.

METHODS

A total of 1,257 patients with rectal cancer and synchronous lung metastasis were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were divided into a training cohort (n=880) and an internal validation cohort (n=377). An external validation cohort of 132 patients was retrospectively collected from Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. A survival nomogram was developed using variables identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and assessed using the concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare overall survival (OS) outcomes.

RESULTS

Six key risk factors were identified: carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, chemotherapy, tumor stage 2, tumor grade I, radiation therapy, and tumor size (5-100 mm). The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.65 to 0.94. High-risk patients (score ≥104) had significantly worse OS than low-risk patients (P<0.001). Subgroup analysis confirmed that chemotherapy and radiotherapy significantly influenced survival (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This validated survival nomogram provides a reliable tool for prognosis prediction and treatment planning in rectal cancer with synchronous lung metastasis, assisting in clinical decision-making.