Stuart-Smith Rupert F, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M, Li Sihan, Otto Friederike E L, Belesova Kristine, Haines Andy, Harrington Luke J, Hess Jeremy J, Venkatraman Rashmi, Wetzer Thom, Woodward Alistair, Ebi Kristie L
Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY UK.
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY UK.
Clim Change. 2025;178(9):165. doi: 10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5. Epub 2025 Sep 10.
Heat-related deaths occur throughout the summer months, peak during heatwaves, and are affected by temperature and exposed populations' sensitivities to meteorological conditions. Previous studies found that climate change is increasing heat-related mortality worldwide. We build on existing epidemiological methods to shed light on the adverse effects of climate change on human health. We address limitations in existing methods and apply refined approaches to assess heat mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Zürich, Switzerland, over 50 years (1969-2018) including a case study of summer 2018. Our methodological refinements affect how counterfactual climate scenarios are derived, and facilitate accounting for changing vulnerability, and assessing impacts during and outside heatwaves. We find nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths attributable to human-induced climate change between 1969 and 2018. Declining vulnerability to heat avoided at least 700 heat-related deaths. The approach described here could be applied elsewhere to quantify the effect of climate change on other health outcomes.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5.
与高温相关的死亡事件在整个夏季都会发生，在热浪期间达到峰值，并受到温度和暴露人群对气象条件敏感性的影响。先前的研究发现，气候变化正在增加全球与高温相关的死亡率。我们基于现有的流行病学方法，以揭示气候变化对人类健康的不利影响。我们解决了现有方法中的局限性，并应用改进的方法来评估1969年至2018年这50年间瑞士苏黎世因人为引起的气候变化导致的高温死亡率，其中包括对2018年夏季的案例研究。我们方法上的改进影响了反事实气候情景的推导方式，并有助于考虑不断变化的脆弱性，以及评估热浪期间和热浪之外的影响。我们发现在1969年至2018年期间，近1700例与高温相关的死亡可归因于人为引起的气候变化。对高温的脆弱性下降避免了至少700例与高温相关的死亡。这里描述的方法可以应用于其他地方，以量化气候变化对其他健康结果的影响。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5获取的补充材料。
