近期人为引起的气候变化导致的与热相关的死亡负担。
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.
作者信息
Vicedo-Cabrera A M, Scovronick N, Sera F, Royé D, Schneider R, Tobias A, Astrom C, Guo Y, Honda Y, Hondula D M, Abrutzky R, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva P H Nascimento, Lavigne E, Correa P Matus, Ortega N Valdes, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola J J K, Ryti N, Pascal M, Schneider A, Katsouyanni K, Samoli E, Mayvaneh F, Entezari A, Goodman P, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, de'Donato F, Hashizume M, Alahmad B, Diaz M Hurtado, De La Cruz Valencia C, Overcenco A, Houthuijs D, Ameling C, Rao S, Ruscio F Di, Carrasco-Escobar G, Seposo X, Silva S, Madureira J, Holobaca I H, Fratianni S, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Iniguez C, Forsberg B, Ragettli M S, Guo Y L L, Chen B Y, Li S, Armstrong B, Aleman A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Dang T N, Dung D V, Gillett N, Haines A, Mengel M, Huber V, Gasparrini A
机构信息
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
出版信息
Nat Clim Chang. 2021 Jun;11(6):492-500. doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x. Epub 2021 May 31.
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
气候变化影响人类健康；然而，尚未有大规模、系统性的努力来量化由于气候变化已经发生的与高温相关的人类健康影响。在此，我们使用来自43个国家732个地点的实证数据，来估计1991年至2018年期间因近期人为变暖导致的额外高温暴露所带来的死亡负担。在所有研究国家中，我们发现暖季与高温相关的死亡中有37.0%（范围为20.5 - 76.3%）可归因于人为气候变化，并且各大洲的死亡率都有明显上升。负担在地理上存在差异，但在许多地方每年有数十至数百人死亡。我们的研究结果支持迫切需要更具雄心的缓解和适应策略，以尽量减少气候变化对公众健康的影响。
Zotero 插件