Fang He, Fan Gao-Feng, Wang Kuo, He Yue, Shi Shou-Hai, Li Zheng-Quan
Zhejiang Climate Centre, Hangzhou 310051, China.
School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Sep 8;46(9):5788-5799. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202408215.
The Yangtze River Delta Region is one of China's most open， innovative， and economically active regions， and understanding the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of its net primary productivity （NPP） plays an important role in revealing the status of vegetation restoration and guiding ecological restoration. Based on the MODIS NDVI remote sensing dataset and meteorological data， the NPP data in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2022 were estimated by using the carbon flux model of terrestrial ecosystem. In addition， the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and stability of NPP in the study area were estimated by using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， the Mann-Kendall significance test， and the coefficient of variation method. Using partial derivative analysis， the contributions of climate factors and human activities to NPP change in this region were quantitatively revealed， and the driving factors of NPP change were analyzed. The results follow： ① The vegetation net primary productivity （NPP） in the Yangtze River Delta Region showed a fluctuating upward trend， with a rate of 3.62 g·m， from 2000 to 2022. ② The average vegetation NPP exhibited pronounced spatial differentiation characteristics， typically exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north and high in the west and low in the east. In the past 23 years， the vegetation NPP changed with a significant increase trend， which accounted for 48.15% of the total area of the study area. ③ During the study period， the NPP of vegetation in the Yangtze River Delta was dominated by low fluctuation and medium fluctuation， accounting for 51.83 and 30.36% of the total area of the study area， respectively. ④ The contribution of climate change to vegetation NPP changes in the Yangtze River Delta Region was greater than that of human activities， which had a more significant negative impact. ⑤ The driving mechanism analysis showed that the vegetation NPP changes in the Yangtze River Delta Region were largely attributable to the decrease due to the influence of human activities.
长江三角洲地区是中国最开放、创新且经济活跃的地区之一，了解其净初级生产力（NPP）的时空变化特征及驱动因素，对于揭示植被恢复状况和指导生态修复具有重要意义。基于MODIS NDVI遥感数据集和气象数据，利用陆地生态系统碳通量模型估算了2000—2022年长江三角洲地区的NPP数据。此外，运用Theil-Sen中位数趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和变异系数法，对研究区NPP的时空变化特征及稳定性进行了估算。通过偏导数分析，定量揭示了气候因子和人类活动对该地区NPP变化的贡献，并对NPP变化的驱动因素进行了分析。结果如下：①2000—2022年，长江三角洲地区植被净初级生产力（NPP）呈波动上升趋势，速率为3.62 g·m 。②植被NPP平均值呈现出明显的空间分异特征，总体表现为南高北低、西高东低的空间分布格局。在过去23年里，植被NPP呈显著增加趋势变化的区域占研究区总面积的48.15%。③研究期内，长江三角洲地区植被NPP以低波动和中等波动为主，分别占研究区总面积的51.83%和30.36%。④气候变化对长江三角洲地区植被NPP变化的贡献大于人类活动，人类活动对植被NPP变化的负面影响更为显著。⑤驱动机制分析表明，长江三角洲地区植被NPP变化在很大程度上归因于人类活动影响导致的下降。
