Warren Robert, Warren John Robert, Zheng Ping
Center for Migration Studies of New York, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Int Migr Rev. 2025 Jun;59(2):949-962. doi: 10.1177/01979183231195280. Epub 2023 Aug 29.
Demographers generally agree that the total undocumented population in the United States increased from 3.5 million in 1990 to about 12 million in 2008 and declined from 2008 to 2010. The consensus breaks down after 2010, however, with three of the five organizations that derive annual estimates of the population showing from 2010 to 2018 and two organizations reporting substantial over the period. The primary reason for this divergence is that organizations use a variety of estimates of emigration of legal residents, and in some cases the data are decades out of date. Reliable information about trends in this population is important for developing legislative and administrative policies to reduce the population and for assessing the effectiveness of enforcement efforts. This research note describes an improved residual method for updating annual estimates of the undocumented population counted in the American Community Survey (ACS; Ruggles et al. 2022); the method incorporates a time-varying estimate of emigration. Data needed to update estimates are available in the year estimates are derived, and a new estimate can be compiled as soon as ACS data are released. The methodology and data needed to update an estimate of the undocumented population each year are described.
人口统计学家普遍认为，美国无证人口总数从1990年的350万增加到2008年的约1200万，并在2008年至2010年期间有所下降。然而，在2010年之后，这种共识就不存在了，在五个对人口进行年度估计的组织中，有三个组织显示2010年至2018年期间人口减少，另外两个组织报告称这一时期人口大幅增加。这种差异的主要原因是，各组织使用了各种对合法居民移民情况的估计，而且在某些情况下，数据已经过时数十年。有关这一人口趋势的可靠信息对于制定减少该人口数量的立法和行政政策以及评估执法努力的有效性至关重要。本研究报告描述了一种改进的残差法，用于更新美国社区调查（ACS；Ruggles等人，2022年）中统计的无证人口年度估计数；该方法纳入了随时间变化的移民估计数。更新估计数所需的数据在得出估计数的年份即可获得，一旦ACS数据发布，就可以编制新的估计数。本文描述了每年更新无证人口估计数所需的方法和数据。
