Svenson O, Fischhoff B, MacGregor D
Accid Anal Prev. 1985 Apr;17(2):119-33. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(85)90015-6.
Swedish and U.S. subjects judged their own driving skills and safety in relation to other drivers. As in earlier studies, most subjects showed an optimism bias: a tendency to judge oneself as safer and more skillful than the average driver, with a smaller risk of getting involved and injured in an accident. Different measures of the optimism effect were strongly correlated with one another, with driving experience and with the judged importance of human factors (as opposed to technical and chance factors) in causing accidents. Degree of optimism was positively, but weakly, correlated with reported seatbelt usage and worry about traffic accidents. Seatbelt usage was positively related to the extent to which belts are judged to be convenient and popular, and more modestly related to the belt's perceived contributions to safety. These results suggest that providing more information about the effectiveness of seatbelts may not be as efficient a way of increasing seatbelt usage as emphasizing other factors, such as comfort and social norms, which cannot be outweighed by optimism.
瑞典和美国的受试者就自身驾驶技能以及与其他驾驶员相比的安全性进行了评判。与早期研究一样，大多数受试者表现出乐观偏差：倾向于认为自己比一般驾驶员更安全、驾驶技术更好，在事故中卷入并受伤的风险更小。乐观效应的不同衡量指标彼此之间、与驾驶经验以及与在引发事故中人为因素（相对于技术和偶然因素）的评判重要性都密切相关。乐观程度与报告的安全带使用情况以及对交通事故的担忧呈正相关，但相关性较弱。安全带的使用与人们认为安全带方便且受欢迎的程度呈正相关，与安全带对安全的感知贡献的相关性则较弱。这些结果表明，提供更多关于安全带有效性的信息，可能不如强调其他因素（如舒适度和社会规范）那样是增加安全带使用的有效方式，而乐观情绪无法抵消这些因素的影响。
