Evans L
Accid Anal Prev. 1985 Apr;17(2):155-70. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(85)90018-1.
This work was performed to investigate how the likelihood of a two-car crash depends on the driver age and car mass for each of the two involved cars, and also to examine the special case of cars of similar mass crashing into each other. Data on 108 044 cars involved in police reported two-car crashes occurring in New York State in 1971 and 1972 were fitted to a function of the driver age and car mass for each of the two involved cars. Car registrations are used to estimate exposure. The special case of crashes between cars of similar mass is considered because of prior results on driver injuries in such crashes. It is found that "small-small" crashes (defined as a 900 kg car crashing into another 900 kg car) are about 0.3 times as likely as "big-big" crashes (an 1800 kg car crashing into another 1800 kg car), assuming equal numbers of cars driven by drivers of the same age. Combining the present results with earlier findings of increased injury risk in small-small crashes gives that such crashes injure about 70% as many drivers as big-big crashes when normalized for numbers of cars and driver age. That is, it is concluded that small-small crashes produce 30% fewer injuries than do big-big crashes.
开展这项工作是为了研究两车相撞的可能性如何取决于涉事两车各自的驾驶员年龄和车辆质量，同时也研究质量相近的汽车相互碰撞这种特殊情况。针对1971年和1972年纽约州警方报告的108044起两车相撞事故中涉事的每辆车，将驾驶员年龄和车辆质量的数据拟合为一个函数。利用汽车登记信息来估计暴露情况。考虑质量相近的汽车之间碰撞的特殊情况是因为此前关于此类碰撞中驾驶员受伤情况的研究结果。研究发现，假设同一年龄段驾驶员驾驶的车辆数量相等，“小—小”碰撞（定义为一辆900千克的汽车撞上另一辆900千克的汽车）的可能性约为“大—大”碰撞（一辆1800千克的汽车撞上另一辆1800千克的汽车）的0.3倍。将当前结果与早期关于“小—小”碰撞中受伤风险增加的研究结果相结合，结果表明，在按车辆数量和驾驶员年龄进行归一化处理后，“小—小”碰撞中受伤的驾驶员数量约为“大—大”碰撞的70%。也就是说，得出的结论是，“小—小”碰撞造成的伤害比“大—大”碰撞少30%。
