Uğurlu Özkan, Sana Fatih, Uğurlu Hasan, Şenbursa Nihan
Ordu University, Turkey.
Inquiry. 2025 Jan-Dec;62:469580251371875. doi: 10.1177/00469580251371875. Epub 2025 Sep 22.
This study examines the impact of physical and mental health conditions of officer of the watch (OOW) on marine accidents such as collisions and groundings. The research highlights the critical role of psychosocial factors, especially stress, burnout, and mobbing, in the occurrence of accidents. A Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) based model was developed to quantitatively assess the effects of mental and physical health factors on marine accidents. Expert opinions were integrated into the model by converting linguistic uncertainties into probabilistic values using fuzzy logic. The subjective probabilities were elicited from 3 domain experts with backgrounds in maritime accidents, seafarers' mental and physical health, and human factors. The results indicate that mental health-related issues increase the risk of accidents approximately 2.5 times more than physical health problems. Factors such as stress, burnout, and mental fatigue significantly impair decision-making, situational awareness, and communication. In contrast, the impact of physical fatigue due to long working hours, shift-based operational schedules, and lack of sleep was found to be moderate. The study demonstrates that physical measures alone are insufficient for maritime safety; a holistic approach that includes psychological support, workload management, and mental health assessments is necessary. The proposed FBN model realistically captures the complex effects of human factors, offering innovative contributions to accident prevention strategies.
本研究考察了值班驾驶员身心健康状况对碰撞和搁浅等海上事故的影响。该研究强调了社会心理因素,尤其是压力、倦怠和职场暴力,在事故发生中的关键作用。开发了一种基于模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)的模型,以定量评估身心健康因素对海上事故的影响。通过使用模糊逻辑将语言不确定性转化为概率值,将专家意见整合到模型中。主观概率是从3位具有海上事故、海员身心健康和人为因素背景的领域专家那里获取的。结果表明,与心理健康相关的问题使事故风险增加的幅度大约是身体健康问题的2.5倍。压力、倦怠和精神疲劳等因素会显著损害决策、情境意识和沟通能力。相比之下,发现长时间工作、轮班作业计划和睡眠不足导致的身体疲劳影响适中。该研究表明,仅采取身体方面的措施不足以保障海上安全;必须采取包括心理支持、工作量管理和心理健康评估在内的整体方法。所提出的FBN模型切实捕捉了人为因素的复杂影响,为事故预防策略做出了创新性贡献。