Li Yanru, Ling Shiyao, Zhou Yuelin, Li Yong, He Jingman, Yang Lian
School of Management, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China.
School of Public Health, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China.
Tob Induc Dis. 2025 Sep 24;23. doi: 10.18332/tid/209192. eCollection 2025.
The high prevalence of tobacco use in China has led to a heavy social burden. There have been many studies on smoking behavior in China, but few have explored it from the perspective of behavioral economics. This study investigated the association between time-inconsistent preferences and smoking behavior.
We conducted a household-based cross-sectional survey in Sichuan Province, southwestern China, in 2022. Participants were selected using multistage stratified sampling. Data were collected through face-to-face, questionnaire-based household surveys, yielding 5446 valid responses. The smoking status of all participants was confirmed by cotinine test. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed on variables such as sociodemographic variables and time-inconsistent preference, and a binary logistic regression model was used to explore the relationship between time-inconsistent preference and smoking behavior.
The smoking rate of the survey participants was 23.87%, among which that of drinkers was 45.90%, which was significantly higher than that of non-drinkers (15.10%); 712 participants (13.07%) both smoked and drank, and the average time-inconsistent preference (time-inconsistent preferences measured over 1-month and 12-month delay periods) of smokers (mean ± standard deviation: 0.91 ± 0.14) was significantly lower than that of non-smokers (0.95 ± 0.11, p<0.001). Thus, those with weaker time-inconsistent preferences were less likely to smoke (p<0.001, adjusted odds ratio, AOR=0.276; 95% CI: 0.140-0.544). This trend was significant in both drinkers and non-drinkers, with AOR of 0.253 (95% CI: 0.093-0.693) and 0.26 (95% CI: 0.102-0.661), respectively.
Weaker time-inconsistent preferences show a significant negative association with smoking behavior in this Chinese sample, independent of alcohol consumption. Commitment mechanisms targeting time-inconsistent preferences may hold promise for smoking cessation interventions, although efficacy requires validation through randomized trials.
中国烟草使用率居高不下，导致了沉重的社会负担。中国已有许多关于吸烟行为的研究，但从行为经济学角度进行探讨的却很少。本研究调查了时间不一致偏好与吸烟行为之间的关联。
2022年，我们在中国西南部的四川省开展了一项基于家庭的横断面调查。采用多阶段分层抽样选取参与者。通过面对面的问卷调查收集数据，共获得5446份有效回复。所有参与者的吸烟状况均通过可替宁检测得以确认。对社会人口统计学变量和时间不一致偏好等变量进行描述性统计分析，并使用二元逻辑回归模型探究时间不一致偏好与吸烟行为之间的关系。
调查参与者的吸烟率为23.87%，其中饮酒者的吸烟率为45.90%，显著高于非饮酒者（15.10%）；712名参与者（13.07%）既吸烟又饮酒，吸烟者的平均时间不一致偏好（在1个月和12个月延迟期测量的时间不一致偏好）（均值±标准差：0.91±0.14）显著低于非吸烟者（0.95±0.11，p<0.001）。因此，时间不一致偏好较弱的人吸烟可能性较小（p<0.001，调整后的优势比，AOR=0.276；95%置信区间：0.140 - 0.544）。这种趋势在饮酒者和非饮酒者中均显著，AOR分别为0.253（95%置信区间：0.093 - 0.693）和0.26（95%置信区间：0.102 - 0.661）。
在这个中国样本中，较弱的时间不一致偏好与吸烟行为呈现出显著的负相关，且独立于酒精消费。针对时间不一致偏好的承诺机制可能对戒烟干预具有前景，尽管其效果需要通过随机试验来验证。
