A prognostic model for head injury.

A prognostic model for head injured patients was developed. Patients fall into one of four prognostic categories at the end of the first hospital day: I. Discharge alive on or before the seventh hospital day. II. Discharge alive 8--42 days after admission. III. Discharge alive after 42 days, or dead after five years. IV. Discharge dead before five years. The outcome of 63% of the patients was predicted correctly. The model correctly placed, or missed by only one category, 97% of the patients observed. Errors tended to the optimistic side of observed outcomes. Age and pattern of consciousness were critical prognostic factors.