Stewart W A, Litten S P, Sheehe P R
Acta Neurochir (Wien). 1979;45(3-4):199-208. doi: 10.1007/BF01769134.
A prognostic model for head injured patients was developed. Patients fall into one of four prognostic categories at the end of the first hospital day: I. Discharge alive on or before the seventh hospital day. II. Discharge alive 8--42 days after admission. III. Discharge alive after 42 days, or dead after five years. IV. Discharge dead before five years. The outcome of 63% of the patients was predicted correctly. The model correctly placed, or missed by only one category, 97% of the patients observed. Errors tended to the optimistic side of observed outcomes. Age and pattern of consciousness were critical prognostic factors.
针对头部受伤患者开发了一种预后模型。在入院第一天结束时，患者分为四个预后类别之一：I. 在第七个住院日当天或之前存活出院。II. 入院后8 - 42天存活出院。III. 42天后存活出院或五年后死亡。IV. 五年前死亡出院。63%的患者结局被正确预测。该模型对97%观察到的患者进行了正确分类，或仅错分一个类别。错误倾向于观察到的结局的乐观方面。年龄和意识模式是关键的预后因素。
