Nottay B K, Metselaar D
Bull World Health Organ. 1973;48(4):421-7.
The results of a long-term survey of poliomyelitis in Kenya are reported. Virus was isolated from patients and a limited number of sera were also tested for antibodies. The purpose of the investigation was to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of the disease and to determine whether epidemics could be predicted. A 3-year rhythm was found in the circulation of type 1 poliovirus, making possible the prediction and hence, on two occasions, the curbing or prevention of epidemics.
报告了对肯尼亚小儿麻痹症的长期调查结果。从患者身上分离出了病毒,还对少量血清进行了抗体检测。该调查的目的是阐明该疾病的流行病学特征,并确定是否可以预测疫情。发现1型脊髓灰质炎病毒的传播存在3年周期,这使得预测疫情成为可能,因此有两次成功遏制或预防了疫情。