Ambrosch F, Wiedermann G
Dev Biol Stand. 1979;43:85-90.
In the case of infectious diseases with decreasing morbidity and mortality, the beneficial effects of vaccination should be reevaluated regularly with the help of special formulae. This procedure can be simplified by calculation of the epidemiologic trend and the so-called borderline risk Rlim, meaning the borderline number of complications when risks of the disease and risks of vaccination are equal. This method allows to estimate when the vaccination against a certain disease will lose its beneficial effect. A follow-up of the mortality of whooping cough in Austria leads to the conclusion that vaccination against whooping cough has lost its justification. In case of BCG vaccination the borderline mortality is not yet reached in Austria, although tuberculosis mortality and the number of prevented cases have decreased already to a very low level.
对于发病率和死亡率不断下降的传染病，应借助特殊公式定期重新评估疫苗接种的有益效果。通过计算流行病学趋势和所谓的临界风险Rlim（即疾病风险与疫苗接种风险相等时的并发症临界数量），这一过程可以简化。该方法能够估计针对某种疾病的疫苗接种何时会失去其有益效果。对奥地利百日咳死亡率的跟踪调查得出结论，百日咳疫苗接种已失去其合理性。就卡介苗接种而言，奥地利尚未达到临界死亡率，尽管结核病死亡率和预防病例数已降至非常低的水平。
