海洛因流行的数学模型：对控制政策的启示。
A mathematical model of a heroin epidemic: implications for control policies.
作者信息
Mackintosh D R, Stewart G T
出版信息
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1979 Dec;33(4):299-304. doi: 10.1136/jech.33.4.299.
Abstract
An exponential model based on the infectious disease model of Kermack and McKendrick has been simplified to illustrate how the use of heroin spreads in epidemic fashion. A numerical simulation is arranged to show how the dynamics of spread are influenced by the original number of users, rates of conversion, and time of removal from the drug scene of those secondarily affected. The spread is significantly increased by small increases of those originally affected, in which case reduction of spread requires a large increase in rate of removal. The model indicates a strategy for intervention which is discussed in relation to policies for control of drug abuse.
摘要
基于克马克和麦肯德里克传染病模型的指数模型已被简化，以说明海洛因的使用是如何以流行方式传播的。进行了数值模拟，以展示传播动态如何受到初始使用者数量、转化率以及受二次影响者离开毒品场景的时间的影响。初始受影响者数量的小幅增加会显著增加传播，在这种情况下，要减少传播就需要大幅提高清除率。该模型表明了一种干预策略，并结合药物滥用控制政策进行了讨论。
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