Last J M
Br Med J. 1969 Mar 22;1(5646):769-72. doi: 10.1136/bmj.1.5646.769.
The demand for doctors has increased despite improved community health, because the prevalence of chronic disease has increased, and because affluence, better education, and the growth of specialization have all stimulated demand.Most authorities have recommended an increase in the supply of doctors to meet the increasing demand. Nevertheless, a supply which preserves the present ratio of doctors to population might be adequate if medical productivity were raised. Moreover, an increase of the supply stimulates further demand; perhaps demand would fall if the supply were reduced, and community health might not deteriorate as a result of this.Other social institutions besides medicine have a claim on the available pool of talent from which doctors are recruited. It is possible that medicine already receives its fair share.
尽管社区健康状况有所改善，但对医生的需求仍在增加，这是因为慢性病的患病率上升了，还因为富裕程度提高、教育水平提升以及专业化的发展都刺激了需求。大多数权威机构建议增加医生供应以满足不断增长的需求。然而，如果提高医疗生产率，维持目前医生与人口的比例的供应可能就足够了。此外，供应的增加会刺激进一步的需求；也许减少供应需求就会下降，而社区健康状况可能不会因此恶化。除了医学之外，其他社会机构也需要从招募医生的可用人才库中获取人才。医学有可能已经获得了其应有的份额。
