Sabin A B
JAMA. 1977 Jun 27;237(26):2823-8.
Increases in mortality from pneumonia and high-risk chronic diseases have not occurred during recent influenza epidemics. Excess mortality during the past four influenza epidemics in the United States is attributable to influenza reported as a primary cause of death, and the average excess was only about 4,000 deaths per epidemic. Most clinical influenza severe enough to cause hundreds of millions of days of bed disability during nonepidemic as well as epidemic years is not caused by the influenza viruses. During the nonepidemic year of 1973 to 1974, there were 61,841,000 episodes of clinical influenza severe enough to put people to bed for an average of 3.6 days. In my judgment there is now no basis for recommending annual administration of influenza vaccines to so-called high-risk groups and persons over 64 years of age.
在近期流感流行期间,肺炎和高危慢性病导致的死亡率并未上升。在美国过去四次流感流行期间,额外死亡归因于报告为主要死因的流感,每次流行的平均额外死亡仅约4000人。在非流行年以及流行年,大多数严重到足以导致数亿天卧床失能的临床流感并非由流感病毒引起。在1973年至1974年的非流行年,有6184.1万例临床流感病例严重到足以使患者平均卧床3.6天。我认为,现在没有依据建议向所谓的高危人群和64岁以上人群每年接种流感疫苗。