Egger M, Jennings S, Spuhler T, Zimmermann H P, Paccaud F, Somaini B
Medizinische Universitätsklinik, Bern.
Schweiz Med Wochenschr. 1989 Apr 5;119(13-14):434-9.
In Switzerland from 1969-1985, 9 out of 11 influenza epidemics were associated with a statistically significant increase in mortality. A total of 12,202 excess deaths from all causes was identified. Expected deaths were forecast for each epidemic period separately for 4 age groups using Fourier and Arima modeling. 75.7% of all-cause excess deaths occurred in age group 70 to 89 and 5.1% in age group 1-59. In the 70-89 years old group the excess mortality risk during influenza epidemics was 271.6 per 100,000, whereas in age group 1-59 it was only 1.7 per 100,000. Only 40% of all excess deaths had been ascribed to acute respiratory conditions. Influenza viruses A H3N2 were the most frequently identified agents. In some instances mortality increased before the morbidity reports of the Swiss practitioners indicated the occurrence of an epidemic. Also, morbidity reporting decreased over successive years. A decrease in mortality following the epidemics was not observed. A more complete vaccination of high risk patients in Switzerland is desirable.
1969年至1985年期间，在瑞士，11次流感疫情中有9次与死亡率在统计学上的显著上升相关。共确认了12202例各种原因导致的超额死亡病例。使用傅里叶和自回归积分滑动平均模型分别对4个年龄组在每个疫情期间的预期死亡人数进行了预测。所有原因导致的超额死亡病例中有75.7%发生在70至89岁年龄组，5.1%发生在1至59岁年龄组。在70至89岁年龄组中，流感疫情期间的超额死亡风险为每10万人271.6例，而在1至59岁年龄组中仅为每10万人1.7例。所有超额死亡病例中只有40%归因于急性呼吸道疾病。甲型H3N2流感病毒是最常检测到的病原体。在某些情况下，在瑞士医生的发病率报告显示疫情发生之前，死亡率就已经上升。此外，连续几年发病率报告有所下降。疫情过后未观察到死亡率下降。瑞士高危患者进行更全面的疫苗接种是可取的。
