Swain R W, Kilpatrick K E, Marsh J J
Health Serv Res. 1977 Winter;12(4):380-95.
A model is described that predicts hospital census and computes, for each day, the number of elective admissions that will maximize the census over the short run, subject to constraints on the probability of overflow. Where a computer is available the model provides detailed predictions of census in units as small as 10 beds; used with manual computation the model allows production of tables of the recommended numbers of elective admissions to the hospital as a whole. The model has been tested in five hospitals and is part of the admissions system in two of them; implementation is described, and the results obtained are discussed.
本文描述了一种模型，该模型可预测医院的住院人数，并在短期内在不超过溢出概率的约束条件下，计算出每日可使住院人数最大化的择期入院人数。若有计算机可用，该模型可提供小至10张床位的详细住院人数预测；若结合人工计算使用，该模型可生成整个医院推荐择期入院人数的表格。该模型已在五家医院进行了测试，并且是其中两家医院入院系统的一部分；文中描述了其实施情况，并讨论了所获得的结果。
