Kunz J, Keller P J
Br J Obstet Gynaecol. 1976 Aug;83(8):640-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.1976.tb00903.x.
The predictive value of various biochemical methods for monitoring early risk pregnancies has been compared in 65 cases of threatened abortion. Estimation of human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG), human placental lactogen (HPL), progesterone, oestradiol and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in serum were made by radioimmunoassays. Values below the normal range predicted abortion in 79, 81, 89, 92 and 38 per cent of patients, while normal values confirmed continuation of pregnancy with an accuracy of 71, 61, 60, 68 and 30 per cent respectively. Thus predictions from oestradiol and progesterone were at least as reliable as those from the protein hormones, while AFP proved to be unsuitable for this purpose. Combination of two variables gave even more reliable results. Due to individual and diurnal variation, however, abortion in the third and fourth month could not be definitely assumed at values above 5 IU HCG/ml, 5 ng progesterone/ml or 200 pg oestradiol/ml.
对65例先兆流产患者比较了各种生化方法监测早期高危妊娠的预测价值。采用放射免疫分析法测定血清中人绒毛膜促性腺激素（HCG）、人胎盘催乳素（HPL）、孕酮、雌二醇和甲胎蛋白（AFP）。低于正常范围的值对79%、81%、89%、92%和38%的患者预测为流产，而正常的值分别以71%、61%、60%、68%和30%的准确率证实妊娠继续。因此，雌二醇和孕酮的预测至少与蛋白质激素的预测一样可靠，而AFP被证明不适用于此目的。两个变量的组合给出了更可靠的结果。然而，由于个体差异和昼夜变化，在第三个月和第四个月时，不能仅根据HCG高于5IU/ml、孕酮高于5ng/ml或雌二醇高于200pg/ml就明确判定流产。
