Pietzcker A, Gaebel W
Pharmacopsychiatria. 1983 Nov;16(6):206-11. doi: 10.1055/s-2007-1019500.
Three problems in the prediction of the long-term outcome of schizophrenia are illustrated by the results of three separate studies: The limitations of the possibility of generalizing results, the limits being due to the given historical and sociocultural settings. This determines the results of research. The relationships between different types of predictors and targets. The disease-related specificity of predictors. A prospective 1-year follow-up study comparing 100 schizophrenic patients in a rural region with 200 schizophrenic patients in an urban region shows regional differences in outcome criteria, such as rate of hospitalization. The prognostic significance of the various predictors is also different in the two regions. A follow-up study of 70 schizophrenic patients, who were continuously treated with neuroleptic drugs in our outpatient clinic after hospital discharge for an average of 14 years, shows a relatively good outcome. Several outcome dimensions (rehospitalization rate, symptoms, social and work adjustment, self-ratings) are partly mutually independent. The various outcome dimensions are predicted by different predictor patterns. A prospective follow-up study of 86 schizophrenic patients compared with 75 patients with other psychiatric diagnoses confirms the finding of the partly low intercorrelations of the different outcome criteria. The study additionally shows that the predictors of some outcome dimensions, such as work adjustment, are non-specific in respect of diagnosis.
结果推广可能性的局限性，这种局限性归因于特定的历史和社会文化背景。这决定了研究结果。不同类型预测因素与目标之间的关系。预测因素的疾病相关性特异性。一项前瞻性1年随访研究比较了农村地区的100名精神分裂症患者和城市地区的200名精神分裂症患者，结果显示在诸如住院率等预后标准方面存在地区差异。在这两个地区，各种预测因素的预后意义也有所不同。一项对70名精神分裂症患者的随访研究表明，这些患者出院后在我们的门诊连续接受抗精神病药物治疗平均14年，结果显示预后相对良好。几个预后维度（再住院率、症状、社会和工作适应、自评）部分相互独立。不同的预后维度由不同的预测模式预测。一项对86名精神分裂症患者与75名其他精神疾病诊断患者的前瞻性随访研究证实了不同预后标准之间部分低相关性的发现。该研究还表明，一些预后维度的预测因素，如工作适应，在诊断方面不具有特异性。
