Smith E M, Cloninger C R, Bradford S
Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 1983 Spring;7(2):237-43. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.1983.tb05449.x.
An 11-year follow-up of 100 alcoholic women who were systematically interviewed and diagnosed during hospitalization found 31% dead, the majority as a result of alcohol-related causes. There were over 4 times as many deaths in alcoholic women as expected in the general population. The life span of alcoholic women was shortened by over 15 years. Only those women who had abstained during the interval following hospitalization had fewer than expected deaths. Five variables correctly predicted survival status for 79% of the subjects (80% of survivors and 77% of those who died): older age at index, onset of alcoholism before age 30, history of frequent benders, primary diagnosis of antisocial personality, and short-term drinking status.
对100名在住院期间接受系统访谈和诊断的酗酒女性进行了11年的随访，发现31%的人死亡，大多数死于与酒精相关的原因。酗酒女性的死亡人数是普通人群预期死亡人数的4倍多。酗酒女性的寿命缩短了15年以上。只有那些在住院后的间隔期戒酒的女性死亡人数少于预期。五个变量正确预测了79%的受试者的生存状况（80%的幸存者和77%的死亡者）：初次就诊时年龄较大、30岁之前开始酗酒、频繁酗酒史、反社会人格的初步诊断以及短期饮酒状况。
