Sillanpää M
Acta Neurol Scand Suppl. 1983;96:1-81.
The purpose of the present study was to examine the prognosis for epilepsy with a childhood onset by means of a follow-up study with a twenty-year follow-up period. Special attention was paid to the seizure outcome, the acquirement of basic and vocational education, working ability and actual working, social functioning, social adjustment and mortality. The study dealt with patients from a specified area in southwestern Finland who were initially under 16 years of age and who had had recurrent, non-sporadic seizures not caused by an acute infection or a progressive cerebral disease. The original series consisted of 245 patients, followed up retrospectively for approximately ten years. Extreme efforts were made to obtain as large a body of data on the patients and their epilepsy as possible. All patients were then examined clinically and by EEG by the present author personally. This took place in 1972. The first prospective follow-up evaluation was carried out in 1977 and the second in 1982. The method used in these two follow-ups was that of a mail inquiry. By 1982, 29 patients had died, ten were not reached and two refused to participate. The group studied in 1982 consisted of the remaining 204 patients. The shortest follow-up period was 17 years (mean 21.16 +/- 24 years). At the end of the follow-up the age of the youngest was 17 years and that of the oldest 34 years (mean 24.74 +/- 0.33 years). The data obtained on the patients were computerized, and multivariate methods of analysis were applied in addition to usual statistical methods. The seizure outcome was considered good if three years or more had elapsed from the last seizure. In 1982 such patients accounted for 60% of all cases. Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that good seizure outcome is best explained by the occurrence of one seizure type only and good short-term treatment outcome. The nonoccurrence of status epilepticus, normal psychoneurological development status and the occurrence of grand mal only also contributed to the explanation. These variables predict the disappearance of seizures with a 95-100% probability. Normal compulsory basic education had been completed by 60% of the patients. Only two variables, good short-term treatment outcome and late age (preschool or school age) at onset of epilepsy, contributed to the explanation of this outcome. It appeared from logistic regression analysis that all those who had a normal psychoneurological development status had completed compulsory education.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
本研究的目的是通过一项为期20年的随访研究来探讨儿童期起病癫痫的预后情况。特别关注癫痫发作结局、基础教育和职业教育的获得情况、工作能力与实际工作情况、社会功能、社会适应及死亡率。该研究针对芬兰西南部特定地区的患者,这些患者最初年龄在16岁以下,患有非急性感染或进行性脑部疾病所致的反复性、非散发性癫痫发作。原始队列由245例患者组成,进行了约10年的回顾性随访。尽最大努力获取尽可能多的关于患者及其癫痫的资料。随后所有患者均由本文作者亲自进行临床检查和脑电图检查,这一过程发生在1972年。首次前瞻性随访评估于1977年进行,第二次于1982年进行。这两次随访采用的方法是邮寄询问。到1982年,29例患者死亡,10例无法联系上,2例拒绝参与。1982年所研究的组由其余204例患者组成。最短随访期为17年(平均21.16±2.4年)。随访结束时,最年轻的患者年龄为17岁,最年长的为34岁(平均24.74±0.33岁)。收集到的患者资料被录入计算机,除常规统计方法外,还应用了多变量分析方法。如果自最后一次发作起已过去三年或更长时间,则癫痫发作结局被视为良好。1982年此类患者占所有病例的60%。逐步逻辑回归分析表明,癫痫发作结局良好的最佳解释是仅出现一种发作类型以及短期治疗效果良好。未发生癫痫持续状态、正常的精神神经发育状态以及仅出现大发作也有助于解释这一情况。这些变量预测癫痫发作消失的概率为95% - 100%。60%的患者完成了正常的义务基础教育。只有两个变量,即短期治疗效果良好和癫痫发作起始时年龄较大(学龄前或学龄期),有助于解释这一结果。逻辑回归分析显示,所有精神神经发育状态正常的患者都完成了义务教育。(摘要截选至400字)