An estimate on the effect of point mutation and natural selection on the rate of amino acid replacement in proteins.

We outline a method for estimating quantitatively the influence of point mutations and selection on the frequencies of codons and amino acids. We show how the mutation rate, i.e., the rate of amino acid replacement due to point mutation, can be affected by the codon usage as well as by the rates of the involved base exchanges. A comparison of the mutation rates calculated from reliable values of codon usage and base exchange probabilities with those that would be expected on the basis of chance reveals a notable suppression of replacements leading to tryptophan, glutamate, lysine, and methionine, and particularly of those leading to the termination codons. If selection constraints are neglected and only mutations are taken into account, the best agreement between expected and observed frequencies of both codons and amino acids is obtained for alpha = 1.13-1.15, where (Formula: see text). The "selection values" of codons and amino acids derived by our method show a pattern that partially deviates from others in the literature. For example, the selection pressure on methionine and cysteine turns out to be much more pronounced than expected if only the discrepancies between their observed and expected occurrences in proteins are considered. To estimate to what extent randomly occurring amino acid replacements are accepted by selection, we constructed an "acceptability matrix" from the well-established matrix of accepted point mutations. On the basis of this matrix "acceptability values" of the amino acids can be defined that correlate with their selection values. We also examine the significance of mutations and selection of amino acids with respect to their physicochemical properties and functions in proteins. The conservatism of amino acid replacements with respect to certain properties such as polarity can be brought about by the mutational process alone, whereas the conservatism with respect to other relevant properties--among them all measures of bulkiness--obviously is the result of additional selectional constraints on the evolution of protein structures.