Fitzgerald J L, Mulford H A
J Stud Alcohol. 1984 Jul;45(4):363-8. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1984.45.363.
What happens to heavy-drinking and problem-drinking rates when per-capita alcohol sales (apparent consumption) increase and decrease is examined. A panel of individuals were interviewed at three 6-month intervals: winter of 1979, summer of 1979 and winter of 1980. Respondents were questioned about their drinking-related behavior in the 30 days prior to each interview. Although per-capita alcohol sales increased from winter to summer and decreased from summer to winter, heavy-drinking and problem-drinking rates changed relatively little, usually in the opposite direction of the sales change. Few of the new problem drinkers appearing from season to season also became new heavy drinkers. These findings were interpreted to mean that the Single Distribution model, relying exclusively on restricting sales to prevent alcohol misuse, is underspecified. There is much to be learned about how aggregate sales changes come about and how sales changes interact with other factors to affect problem-drinking rates.
研究了人均酒精销售额（表观消费量）增加和减少时，酗酒和问题饮酒率会发生什么变化。在三个为期6个月的时间段对一组个体进行了访谈：1979年冬季、1979年夏季和1980年冬季。在每次访谈前30天询问受访者与饮酒相关的行为。尽管人均酒精销售额从冬季到夏季增加，从夏季到冬季减少，但酗酒和问题饮酒率变化相对较小，通常与销售额变化方向相反。季节性出现的新问题饮酒者中很少有人也成为新的酗酒者。这些发现被解释为意味着仅依靠限制销售来预防酒精滥用的单一分布模型不够具体。关于总销售额变化是如何产生的，以及销售额变化如何与其他因素相互作用以影响问题饮酒率，还有很多需要了解的。
