Seasonal changes in alcohol consumption and related problems in Iowa, 1979-1980.

What happens to heavy-drinking and problem-drinking rates when per-capita alcohol sales (apparent consumption) increase and decrease is examined. A panel of individuals were interviewed at three 6-month intervals: winter of 1979, summer of 1979 and winter of 1980. Respondents were questioned about their drinking-related behavior in the 30 days prior to each interview. Although per-capita alcohol sales increased from winter to summer and decreased from summer to winter, heavy-drinking and problem-drinking rates changed relatively little, usually in the opposite direction of the sales change. Few of the new problem drinkers appearing from season to season also became new heavy drinkers. These findings were interpreted to mean that the Single Distribution model, relying exclusively on restricting sales to prevent alcohol misuse, is underspecified. There is much to be learned about how aggregate sales changes come about and how sales changes interact with other factors to affect problem-drinking rates.