Hook E B, Cross P K, Regal R R
Hum Genet. 1984;68(3):211-20. doi: 10.1007/BF00418391.
We examined the proportions (or so called "rates") of fetuses with 47,+21, 47,+18, or 47,+13 diagnosed prenatally in women at the upper extremes of age. Our analysis was prompted by results from a large scale European study of amniocentesis which indicated that after increasing exponentially from age 35 years, the proportions of the autosomal trisomies reached a peak at a specific age and then leveled off or declined at the upper end of the age range. We analyzed North American data on 56,075 fetuses studied because of no known cytogenetic risk factor (aside from maternal age). This is the largest series to date. For 47,+21, the data from amniocentesis studies provide no evidence for any drop in the rate of change of proportion with maternal age up to 49 years. There is, if anything, a trend in our data to a steepening in the exponential rate of change at the upper extreme of age (above 46 years). Data from livebirths on the Down syndrome phenotype are at least consistent with an exponential rate of increase in proportion affected up to age 49 years. For 47,+18 our data from prenatal diagnoses are more consistent with an exponential increase up to age 43 years and a level proportion (or "rate") after that. For 47,+13 no cases were observed above age 42 years, consistent with the drop in proportion affected above this age observed in the European series. We emphasize the possible effect of sampling fluctuation and reporting error upon these apparent trends.
我们研究了年龄处于上限的女性中产前诊断为47,+21、47,+18或47,+13的胎儿比例(即所谓的“发生率”)。我们的分析是由一项欧洲大规模羊膜穿刺术研究结果引发的,该研究表明,自35岁起,常染色体三体的比例呈指数增长,在特定年龄达到峰值,然后在年龄范围上限趋于平稳或下降。我们分析了北美56,075例胎儿的数据,这些胎儿因无已知细胞遗传学风险因素(除母亲年龄外)而接受研究。这是迄今为止最大的系列研究。对于47,+21,羊膜穿刺术研究的数据没有提供任何证据表明,在母亲年龄达到49岁之前,比例变化率会下降。如果有什么不同的话,我们的数据显示,在年龄上限(46岁以上),指数变化率有加剧的趋势。关于唐氏综合征表型的活产数据至少与受影响比例在49岁之前呈指数增长一致。对于47,+18,我们的产前诊断数据更符合在43岁之前呈指数增长,之后比例持平(或“发生率”持平)的情况。对于47,+13,在42岁以上未观察到病例,这与欧洲系列研究中该年龄以上受影响比例下降一致。我们强调抽样波动和报告误差对这些明显趋势可能产生的影响。