Richards R, Richards D, Whittaker R
Med J Aust. 1984;141(12-13):805-8. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.1984.tb132955.x.
A simple and effective method of predicting the number of casualties who may require urgent medical attention, which is based on previous experience in the City-to-Surf fun runs, including weather forecasts and number of entries, is described. In 1983 and 1984, the method was used to predict a number of casualties which was found to be consistent with the actual number. As a result of these predictions, the human and material resources were deployed effectively and all casualties were treated efficiently.
本文描述了一种简单有效的方法，该方法基于城市到海滩趣味跑的以往经验（包括天气预报和参赛人数）来预测可能需要紧急医疗护理的伤亡人数。在1983年和1984年，该方法被用于预测伤亡人数，结果发现预测结果与实际人数相符。基于这些预测，人力和物力资源得到了有效调配，所有伤亡人员都得到了及时救治。
