Ernster V L, Selvin S, Winkelstein W
Science. 1978 Jun 9;200(4346):1165-6. doi: 10.1126/science.653361.
In recent decades, age-adjusted mortality rates from prostatic cancer have risen precipitously among blacks, remaining unchanged among whites. It is now the most common cancer among United States black males. When nonwhite mortality rates were examined by age and birth cohort, it was found that peak rates occurred at every age in the cohort of 1896 to 1900, and declined thereafter. This presages an arrest and reversal of the time trend in summary mortality rates as more recent nonwhite cohorts reach the ages of maximum risk.
近几十年来,前列腺癌的年龄调整死亡率在黑人中急剧上升,而在白人中则保持不变。它现在是美国黑人男性中最常见的癌症。当按年龄和出生队列检查非白人死亡率时,发现1896年至1900年出生队列中的每个年龄组死亡率都达到峰值,此后下降。这预示着随着更近的非白人队列达到最高风险年龄,总体死亡率的时间趋势将停止并逆转。