La Rosa F, Cresci A, Orpianesi C, Saltalamacchia G
Eur J Epidemiol. 1985 Jun;1(2):145-9. doi: 10.1007/BF00141808.
This paper studies prostate cancer mortality in Italy from 1950-1979 to evaluate its importance in relation to total cancers, examine the time trend for forecasting future mortality trends, and makes an attempt to interpretate mortality by analyzing demographic and risk factors. In the Authors' opinion findings from cross-sectional rates, cohort analysis and Devesa-Schneiderman method, indicate that in Italy even if the age-adjusted mortality rate has nearly doubled over the period, as in many other countries, mortality can be expected to remain constant or decrease in the future, since the data to hand show a decreasing trend in some age cohorts.
本文研究了1950年至1979年意大利前列腺癌死亡率,以评估其在所有癌症中的重要性,研究预测未来死亡率趋势的时间趋势,并试图通过分析人口统计学和风险因素来解释死亡率。作者认为,横断面率、队列分析和德韦萨 - 施奈德曼方法的研究结果表明,在意大利,尽管在此期间年龄调整死亡率几乎翻了一番,与许多其他国家一样,但由于现有数据显示某些年龄队列呈下降趋势,预计未来死亡率将保持稳定或下降。