Forecasting cancer trends to optimize control strategies.

Population projections and age-stratified cancer rates were used to forecast the trends for cancer occurrence for the United States during the coming decades: A progressive increase in the number of new cases is already predetermined by the high birth rate that occurred during the middle part of the century, and it will lead to nearly a doubling in the number of cases in about 4 decades. The demographic circumstances that determine the per capita costs of cancer are likely to worsen, because expected population trends will produce a deteriorating per capita economic base. Furthermore, the high costs of emerging treatment technologies are likely to magnify the deterioration ever further. Development of methods for cancer trend forecasting can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources between the need for development of new treatments and the need for new research directed toward primary preventive measures.