Prognostic groups of patients with stage I melanoma.

The thickness of melanomas, presence or absence of ulceration, and the sex of the patient were the three dominant variables affecting the eight-year survival of 1,191 patients with clinical stage I melanoma in the prospective German melanoma group. With regard to these variables, three prognostic groups were defined representing 30%, 9%, and 61% of the patients, respectively. The good prognosis group (93% of patients surviving eight years) consisted of women with melanomas that were 1.5 mm thick or less. The intermediate prognosis group (78% of patients surviving eight years) consisted of men with nonulcerated melanomas that were 1.5 mm thick or less. The poor prognosis group (46% of patients surviving eight years) consisted of all who were left with remaining melanomas, ie, all those with melanomas thicker than 1.5 mm, and in men ulcerated tumors that were 1.5 mm thick or less.