Ehrlich P R, Harte J, Harwell M A, Raven P H, Sagan C, Woodwell G M, Berry J, Ayensu E S, Ehrlich A H, Eisner T
Science. 1983 Dec 23;222(4630):1293-300. doi: 10.1126/science.6658451.
Subfreezing temperatures, low light levels, and high doses of ionizing and ultraviolet radiation extending for many months after a large-scale nuclear war could destroy the biological support systems of civilization, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Productivity in natural and agricultural ecosystems could be severely restricted for a year or more. Postwar survivors would face starvation as well as freezing conditions in the dark and be exposed to near-lethal doses of radiation. If, as now seems possible, the Southern Hemisphere were affected also, global disruption of the biosphere could ensue. In any event, there would be severe consequences, even in the areas not affected directly, because of the interdependence of the world economy. In either case the extinction of a large fraction of the Earth's animals, plants, and microorganisms seems possible. The population size of Homo sapiens conceivably could be reduced to prehistoric levels or below, and extinction of the human species itself cannot be excluded.
在一场大规模核战争之后，持续数月的亚冰点温度、低光照水平以及高剂量的电离辐射和紫外线辐射可能会破坏文明的生物支持系统，至少在北半球是这样。自然和农业生态系统的生产力可能会在一年或更长时间内受到严重限制。战后幸存者将面临饥饿，在黑暗中忍受严寒，并且会受到接近致命剂量的辐射。如果像现在看来有可能的那样，南半球也受到影响，那么全球生物圈可能会陷入混乱。无论如何，即使在没有直接受到影响的地区也会有严重后果，因为世界经济是相互依存的。在这两种情况下，地球上很大一部分动物、植物和微生物都有可能灭绝。智人的人口规模可以想象会减少到史前水平或更低，人类物种本身的灭绝也不能排除。
