Monahan J
Am J Psychiatry. 1984 Jan;141(1):10-5. doi: 10.1176/ajp.141.1.10.
The "first generation" of research studies on the prediction of violent behavior found such prediction to be highly inaccurate. Many social policy changes were implemented or recommended on the basis of that research. More recently, a second generation of research and theory on violence prediction has begun to develop that emphasizes the limitations of the existing body of research, points to possible improvements in predictive technology, and evaluates public policies involving violence prediction only in the context of the feasible alternatives to those policies.
关于暴力行为预测的“第一代”研究发现，这种预测极不准确。基于该项研究，人们实施了或建议了许多社会政策变革。最近，第二代暴力预测研究和理论开始发展，它强调现有研究主体的局限性，指出预测技术可能的改进之处，并仅在这些政策可行替代方案的背景下评估涉及暴力预测的公共政策。
