英格兰和威尔士人群中百日咳免疫力的分布情况。
Distribution of immunity to pertussis in the population of England and Wales.
作者信息
Fine P E, Clarkson J A
出版信息
J Hyg (Lond). 1984 Feb;92(1):21-36. doi: 10.1017/s0022172400063993.
This paper presents three different methods of estimating the number and age distribution of individuals susceptible to pertussis in England and Wales. The first approach is an extrapolation from data in the prevaccine era, the second is based upon theoretical consideration of the transmission dynamics of pertussis, and the third is a detailed cohort analysis of available notification and vaccination data. Each of these analyses suggests that the total number of people susceptible to pertussis infection in England and Wales has remained at 3-4 million for the past 40 years, despite the increase and changes in numbers vaccinated. The effect of vaccination has been to reduce the incidence of infection and disease, but not to reduce the number of susceptibles. These findings, which are consistent with 'mass action theory', could be tested by an appropriately designed seroepidemiological survey.
本文介绍了三种估算英格兰和威尔士易感染百日咳个体数量及年龄分布的不同方法。第一种方法是从前疫苗时代的数据进行外推，第二种方法基于对百日咳传播动力学的理论考量，第三种方法是对现有通报和疫苗接种数据进行详细的队列分析。这些分析均表明，在过去40年里，尽管接种疫苗的人数有所增加和变化，但英格兰和威尔士易感染百日咳的总人数一直维持在300万至400万。疫苗接种的作用是降低感染和疾病的发生率，但并未减少易感人群的数量。这些与“群体作用理论”相符的研究结果，可通过精心设计的血清流行病学调查来验证。
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